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YSU victory likely means playoffs
By Joe Scalzo
YOUNGSTOWN
Earlier this week, Youngstown State coach Eric Wolford talked to his team about the need to stay focused this week and not worry about the postseason.
“I told them, ‘You can’t worry about all the what ifs and scenarios and all that,’” he said. “If we don’t win Saturday, it doesn’t matter.”
Reporters, on the other hand, don’t have to stay focused on Saturday. So here is a guide to the “what ifs, the scenarios and all that,” in a handy Q&A format.
Q. Wait, weren’t you the guy that twice wrote that YSU’s playoff hopes were done?
A. To be honest, I can barely remember what I wrote last week. I mean, I write almost 400 stories a year and who remembers that kind of thing anyway?
Q. Yeah, now I remember. You wrote a fake obituary after the South Dakota State loss, right?
A. Uh, yeah, well, it was supposed to be symbolic of the larger program setback, both in perception and ...
You know what? Let’s just move on.
Q. OK, so is YSU in or out?
A. Let’s start with the FCS playoff format and work from there.
Each year, there are 10 automatic qualifying spots given to 10 conference champions. Either North Dakota State (9-1, 6-1) or Northern Iowa (8-2, 6-1) will get Missouri Valley’s automatic bid.
(There are actually 14 FCS conferences, but because some conferences have either non-scholarship or partial scholarship teams, not every conference earns an automatic berth. And one of them, the Ivy League, doesn’t participate in postseason play.)
That leaves 10 at-large bids. Last year, the Missouri Valley got two of those and the Colonial Athletic Association got three.
Q. So what do you need to do to get an at-large bid?
A. First, you need seven Division I (FCS or FBS) wins. Technically, you can get in with fewer than seven, but it’s never happened before.
This weekend, a committee of 11 athletic directors, including YSU’s Ron Strollo, will choose the 10 at-large teams based on (1) won-lost record, (2) strength of schedule and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship. (Strollo, by the way, will leave the room when the committee discusses YSU.)
There is no limit to how many teams they can pick from one conference, but it’s unlikely any conference will get more than three at-large bids. And one of the MVFC’s is already guaranteed to go to either UNI or NDSU, depending on who gets the automatic bid.
Q. What happens then?
A. The top five overall seeds will host games through the semifinals unless they play a higher seed. Eight teams will play in the first round on Nov. 26 and 12 will earn byes to the Dec. 3 second round. The quarterfinals are Dec. 9-10 and the semifinals are Dec. 16-17.
The championship will be played Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.
Q. What needs to happen for YSU to make it in?
A. There are a couple scenarios, but here’s the easiest one: If YSU (6-4, 4-3) beats Missouri State on Saturday, and Illinois State (7-3, 5-2) loses to Northern Iowa, the Penguins probably have an 80 percent chance of making it. And if Indiana State (6-4, 4-3) loses to Southern Illinois, it would go up to about 90 percent.
Q. What if Illinois State wins?
A. YSU would probably be out, since Illinois State would have a better record and Indiana State would hold the head-to-head edge over the Penguins.
That’s why it’s so important for Illinois State to lose, because that would (probably) leave the three teams at 7-4, 5-3, with each team splitting the season series against the other two. At that point, it would come down to resumes and those inside YSU’s program are confident they have the best resume of the three.
Q. Wait, isn’t YSU unranked?
A. Sort of. The Penguins are 28th in The Sports Network poll and the FCS Coaches poll. But they’re tied for 15th in the latest Gridiron Power Index (GPI), which is sort of like the BCS standings of FCS football.
The GPI holds the most weight with the committee.
The Missouri Valley is ranked second behind the Southern Conference in the GPI ratings, with five teams in the top 15 (No. 1 North Dakota State, No. 3 Northern Iowa, No. 12 Illinois State, No. 13 Indiana State and No. 15 YSU). The Southern Conference only has three in the top 15.
Q. So how do I know this won’t end up like 2005 when YSU went 8-3 and didn’t make the playoffs? Or 2007, when it went 7-4 and was passed over?
A. Two reasons. First, the FCS expanded the playoffs from 16 teams to 20 last year, increasing the odds of getting a third (or fourth) team from the MVFC.
Second, the Penguins played a Division II team in 2007, so they only had six Division I wins. And in 2005, YSU lost to the league’s two other co-champions, UNI and SIU, who both made it. The Penguins probably should have, too. Sometimes, stuff happens.
Q. So when will we find out?
A. The committee will basically set the bracket Saturday night, then review it early Sunday morning. They’ll announce the selections on Sunday at 10 a.m. on ESPNU.
Q. And if the Penguins make it, where will they play?
A. There’s a good chance they could play at home. Home sites for games between non-seeded teams come down to bids, with the committee looking at financial guarantees, facilities, attendance and team performance. YSU is strong in all four categories.
Just ask QB Kurt Hess.
“We are a tough team to beat,” Hess said. “If we hosted, we would bring a great fan base. If we went on the road, we have two huge road wins. And we’re hot right now.
“I think as a team we’re very confident and I believe the committee would ultimately say, ‘OK, you guys are in.’”