Population decline in Valley requires forthright appraisal

The loss of population in the Ma- honing Valley over the past decade is not a surprise, given that Ohio has experienced one of the lowest growth rates in the nation. But what is troubling is that the region’s largest community, the city of Youngstown, is on a downward spiral.

Youngstown has long been considered the heart of the Valley, with political, business and community leaders insisting that it must be strong in order for the region to flourish.

But, as the loss of 15,044 residents illustrates, the city’s decline may be difficult to stop.

Thus the question: What, if anything, can be done to prevent the city from becoming any smaller and to reverse the overall decrease in population in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties? Finding an answer will not be easy and will require a meeting of the minds of all stakeholders.

Indeed, one of the issues that would have to be addressed is whether the tri-county area can be economically and socially vibrant without a growing population. Urban planners talk about “right sizing,” but it’s the decision makers who must determine what size is right for this region.

The official population figures from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 count show Youngstown with 66,971 residents (in 2000, it had 82,015); Warren, the second largest community in the Valley, has 41,557 residents. Ten years ago, the Trumbull County city had a population of 56,832.

The initial reaction from the two mayors to the discouraging news could not have been more different. Youngstown’s Jay Williams expressed disbelief that his city experienced an 18.4 percent decline.

“I find it shocking,” Williams said. “That’s a big, big surprise. It’s so hard to accept. I’m trying to find a rational reason why there would be such a decline.”

By contrast, Warren’s chief executive, Michael O’Brien, said this is an opportunity to “reinvent ourselves.”

There are many reason why urban communities are losing population, foremost of which are the lack of good-paying jobs, the failure of the public school system and the deteriorating neighborhoods, which affect home values.

Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties saw population drops of 7.3, 6.6 and 3.8 percent, respectively. The tri-county area has 556,976 people today, compared with 594,746 in 2000. However, there are communities in each county that are growing, several significantly, and that’s good news. They can be used to market the region to businesses and individuals looking to move to a place that has all the amenities and advantages of major metropolitan centers, but is much cheaper in terms of upscale housing, shopping and entertainment.

Local governments, grass-roots organizations and businesses should study the census data carefully and then begin charting this region’s course.

Revenue loss

Of great concern to the Valley is the loss of federal and state money that is allocated on the basis of population. In addition, for cities like Youngstown and Warren, the number of low-and moderate-income residents directly impacts grants from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (the Community Development Block Grant Program is a prime example), and other agencies.

The census data can be challenged through the appeals process established by the U.S. Census Bureau. June 1 is the starting date for appeals.