Ohio jobs outlook expected to remain tepid

By Mark Williams

Columbus Dispatch

COLUMBUS

New jobs haven’t exactly been rolling off the assembly lines of Ohio companies in recent years.

Yes, the unemployment rate fell for 14 straight months before holding flat in May, standing at a two-year low, and the state’s employers added a robust 62,300 jobs in the first four months of this year.

But there’s a long way to go before employment levels in Ohio get back to where they were before the recession hit. And job growth, as has been the case for years, is expected to remain tepid.

That said, some jobs will need to be filled in the coming years, and some particular sets of skills will be in great demand.

The state estimates that there will be 167,000 job openings a year during the 10-year period that ends in 2018. Of that number, three- quarters will be to replace existing workers.

In all, the state expects that 250,000 new jobs will be created during that period, which will push total employment up to 6 million by 2018.

The projections don’t take into account new industries in the state that could arise, such as the new casinos being developed, some medical breakthrough that could spur job growth or the possibility of a natural-gas drilling boom.

They also don’t take into account the potential for another steep recession or new government policies or regulations that could affect some sectors, such as health care.

“Emerging industries or occupations we often can’t project. ... Some new technological breakthrough could bring a whole new demand we just don’t foresee,” said Keith Ewald, chief of the Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information.

What’s hot

Like the nation as a whole, Ohioans are getting older and requiring more health services. That’s expected to spark a need for those with health-care skills.

The state expects 150,000 private-sector health-care jobs to be added between 2008 and 2018.

Technology will drive some of the growth, as advancements in medicine lead to better treatments and diagnoses. Jobs in hospitals, long-term care and doctors’ offices will be in demand. So will positions as physician assistants, physical therapists and nurses.

Those looking to refocus their job search or prepare for a career with a future need not limit themselves to health care, however. In Columbus, job seekers should look at what already is hot to anticipate where new jobs will come from.

“The best advice to give people is to focus on the industries that are economic drivers for our region,” said Bill LaFayette, vice president of economic analysis for the Columbus Chamber.

Information-technology jobs also are expected to be in demand as financial companies, insurers and other big users of computer data need computer experts, he said.

“It’s kind of a natural fit for our region,” LaFayette said.

He said other categories of growing demand will be logistics and distribution, business and professional services, advertising and public relations.

What’s not

Led by a bounce in the auto sector, manufacturing has experienced a bit of a rebirth in Ohio in the past year with the return of about 10,000 manufacturing jobs. Honda recently announced that it plans to add jobs to its Marysville plant.

“The auto sector is looking brighter than most people expected by this time,” Ewald said.

Still, the long-term trend for manufacturing jobs is expected to be downward as employers continue to accomplish more with shrinking work forces. More than 100,000 manufacturing jobs are expected to disappear between 2008 and 2018, on top of the 180,000 lost from 2001 through 2007, according to a state report.

“Manufacturing will be important to the state’s economy, but manufacturers continue to improve productivity,” said economist Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics.

Other types of work where job counts continue to fade are those in agriculture and mining; newspapers, radio and television; and jobs as telephone-line installers and printing-press operators.