Will Ohio Republicans be fair in congressional redistricting?

With Ohio’s state government, from the governor on down, firmly in the hands of Republicans, it’s natural for the GOP to flex its political muscle. To the victor belongs the spoils.

But while Gov. John Kasich and the Republican leadership in the House and Senate aggressively pursue the legislative agenda they successfully ran on in the November general election, we would hope they recognize the value of a two-party system in government when they sit down to draw the new boundaries for the congressional districts. Likewise, we would urge the apportionment board, made up of the governor, state auditor, secretary of state and one majority and minority member of the House and Senate, to use fairness as a test in coming up with the legislative district lines.

Given the Republican sweep in the election — Democrats hold no statewide offices and are in the minority in the Legislature — the congressional redistricting and the reapportionment of the legislative districts will strengthen the GOP’s hold on Ohio’s politics. But, with the state losing two of its 18 seats in the U.S. House, Democrats are bracing for the worst.

The loss is the result of Ohio’s population growing at a much lower rate over the past 10 years than the national average — 1.6 percent compared with 9.7 percent. New York state also will lose two seats, while Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and New Jersey will lose one each.

Loss of two seats

Each of Ohio’s 16 congressional districts will have 723,031 people. That means there will be a lot of rearranging of the current districts.

Preliminary schemes all point to Democrats losing one of their seats in this part of the state, while possibly losing another if the Republicans insist on keeping all theirs. Currently, the GOP has a 13-5 advantage. It’s possible that the delegation in the 113th Congress in 2013 will have only three Democrats.

Which three? While it’s premature to speculate, we believe that given the predominance of Democrats in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, Congressman Tim Ryan of Niles, D-17th, will be able to survive the redistricting. To be sure, the boundaries will change, but it would be difficult for Republicans to scatter the Democratic voters without jeopardizing their goal of creating safe Republican seats.

But this area will need influential Republicans, such as prominent businessman and Columbiana County GOP Chairman Dave Johnson, to ensure that Ryan continues to represent this region. We are heartened by Johnson’s comments that he would like to have two members of Congress representing the Mahoning Valley. That what’s the region has today with Ryan and freshman Rep. Bill Johnson, R-6th.

As for the state legislative districts, this area’s delegation will still be predominantly Democratic, but as for the rest of the state, the Republicans hold the key.