Kim’s death gives region jitters

Associated Press

BEIJING

It was the scenario strategists from Beijing to Washington worried about: Kim Jong Il of North Korea dies suddenly, before the isolated regime can complete a transfer of power to his young son and rejoin disarmament talks with the U.S.

With news Monday of Kim’s death, the impoverished country known to be pursuing nuclear weapons plunged further into uncertainty, raising risks for the region.

Neighbors worry that political maneuvering in Pyongyang could spill over into missile launches or other aggression, though analysts give such acts a low probability. Tens of thousands of American troops are stationed in South Korea and Japan in this heavily armed, jittery corner of the world. China wants to keep its socialist neighbor stable — and avoid a flood of refugees — but also free from American and South Korean influence.

“If you asked experts what could happen to bring the regime down, it would be the sudden death of Kim Jong Il. That has happened now,” said Victor Cha, a former U.S. National Security Council director for Asian affairs under President George W. Bush and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank.

Its politics opaque in normal times, Pyongyang is likely to slow decision-making, upending efforts to restart nuclear disarmament talks just as the U.S. and North Korea seemed on the verge of resuming them. After months of discussions, Washington was poised to announce a donation of food aid this week and by an agreement with Pyongyang to suspend a uranium enrichment program, people close to the negotiations told The Associated Press.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday the United States is still looking for better relations with the North Korean people despite the “evolving situation” there. “We both share a common interest in a peaceful and stable transition in North Korea as well as ensuring regional peace and stability,” she said in Washington.

Tentative reforms to build up its listless economy and better the lives of North Koreans — 3 million of whom or more than 10 percent of the population are underfed, the U.N. says — may also be put on hold.

Kim’s death caught North Korea’s power brokers at a fragile time, in the midst of grooming his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, who is in his late 20s, to succeed him. Though the elder Kim had a stroke in 2008, hastening plans to find a successor, his health had seemingly improved, allowing him to travel more frequently, resume a more public role and prepare for a longer power transition such as the two-decade-long one he enjoyed under his father.

One test will be a long-planned celebration in April for the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim’s father and revolutionary North Korean founder Kim Il Sung — an event meant to lend credibility to the bloodline succession.

North Korea watchers are focused on the now abbreviated succession, looking for signs of whether the Workers Party and military will rally around Kim Jong Un or whether challenges will arise.

Domestic unrest may percolate, analysts said, as North Koreans tire of poverty and the mobile phones and Internet connections that are a product of recent reforms leave them better informed about the outside world.

The two-day gap between Kim’s death Saturday on a train and its public announcement Monday underscored the government’s nervousness, analysts said.

“The fact that they delayed for two days goes to show that the North Koreans are worried about instability,” said Gong Keyu of Shanghai’s Institute for International Studies.