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Valley keeps lofty economic ranking in report
By Karl Henkel
YOUNGSTOWN
The Mahoning Valley continues to be one of the fastest growing economies among metropolitan areas in America, according to the latest Brookings Institution Metropolitan Report.
Employment in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman region grew at the sixth-fastest rate — 1.1 percent — among all metro areas during the third quarter, propagating 11 times faster than the national average of 0.1 percent growth.
The change in unemployment — a 1.4 percent year-to-year decline — was the eighth-best percentage decrease in America.
It follows a trend closely monitored by Cleveland-based economist George Zeller, who has said for months that “Youngstown is the fastest-growing city” in Ohio.
The report found that Great Lakes metro areas — made up of cities such as Detroit, Grand Rapids, Mich., Toledo and Youngstown — which rely heavily on auto production and durable goods, have recovered the best since the recession.
Youngstown “is following a pattern that many manufacturing areas used to follow,” said Howard Wial, co-author of the report, in an interview with The Vindicator.
Those same cities, however, remain far below their pre-recession levels of employment and gross metropolitan product — the market value of all goods and services within a metro area — because the recession hit the manufacturing sectors harder than most.
The positive, experts say, is the growth potential of the manufacturing industry.
Bert Cene, executive director at the Mahoning and Columbiana Training Association, said manufacturing continues to be the focal point for local employers.
“What we’re seeing now is a need for career and tech type of occupations, skilled trades,” he said.
The unemployment rate of the Valley remained at 8.8 percent — same as the national rate — during the third quarter.
But even with slowly declining unemployment figures nationwide, many experts have said the decreases can be attributed to shrinking work forces.
“The decline in unemployment could be exaggerated by someone leaving,” said Tod Porter, economics department chairman at Youngstown State University. “You need to add jobs just to stay even.”
Youngstown, however, is a bit of a different story.
It’s declining population is no secret.
The area’s work force has declined since October 2006, when 281,400 residents were considered part of the work force, according to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, to 271,800 this October.
That’s a decrease of 3.4 percent; the number of employed residents has dropped by double that amount during the same time period. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent higher this October than in 2006.
The employment gains have led to other positive trends.
Housing prices, which dropped 21 percent since early 2005, saw a modest 1.5 percent increase during the third quarter.
“Things have picked up, There’s no question about it,” said Michael D. Klacik, part owner of Klacik Real Estate. “The market has picked up, but also the market average sales price has gone down.”
Housing values are still 7 percent lower than they were a year ago, slightly less than the nationwide decline of 8.7 percent.
“Usually when you see growth in employment, you normally expect to see increases in house prices as well,” Wial said. “It hasn’t really happened after this recession.”
Klacik said there is still a “tremendous” number of short-sales and foreclosures and said it may take an additional five years to return to a normal housing market.