ON THE BUBBLE: Viewers will learn next month if their favorite shows will live

Viewers will learn next month if their favorite shows will live

By Gail Pennington

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

If you ran a TV network, you’d renew your favorite shows and cancel all the stupid ones.

Me, too. The problem is, your favorite shows probably aren’t my favorite shows, and we could argue “stupid” all night.

A network programmer who made decisions this way, from the heart and not the head, would soon be out of a job, and the network would go bust.

Network television (we’re talking ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and the CW here) depends on mass audiences to survive, and that means attracting the broadest swath of viewers. Every year about this time, it also means disappointing millions of fans whose favorite shows don’t make the cut for another season.

The process of putting together a network schedule is already well under way. The bosses of the networks’ entertainment divisions have heard pitches, read scripts and ordered pilot episodes of those shows they believe have the most promise. In the next month, those pilots will come in, and the networks will decide which are good enough to earn a place on the fall schedule.

For every new show, an old show has to go. Or, to put it another way, every failed show leaves a place for a new series that will become someone’s favorite.

In the TV business, failure isn’t defined just by ratings, unless those ratings are as low as the ones for Fox’s “Lone Star,” the first show canceled last fall. Many factors come into play.

How many people are watching? The networks measure viewership via Nielsen People Meters, counting those who watch live or on the DVR up to seven days later.

Are those people young? Educated? Upper income? All those things are good, especially if the show “skews young” (18-49 is the age group preferred by advertisers).

Is viewership rising or declining? Does the show lose viewers delivered by the show ahead of it? How does the show do vs. the show that previously aired in the time slot?

Does the network own the show or buy it from a studio? Are production costs high? If the show is aging, all costs (including salaries and fees) rise. For an aging show, contracts also expire and must be renegotiated. (Contract negotiations have kept both “Desperate Housewives” and “House” from winning early renewal.)

What other sources of income does the show provide, such as international sales? (CBS’ new “Hawaii Five-0” isn’t the best-rated show of the year, but it’s popular around the world.)

What else does the network have on its schedule? A network with too many successful shows will have to cancel marginal performers to make room for anything new. (CBS is in that position.) On the other hand, a network that’s struggling (think NBC) might keep a low-rated show with good buzz — or might decide to clean house, starting fresh.

What’s new in the pipeline? Do pilots show more promise than existing shows?

How much does the network believe in the show? Do programmers think it’s a creative success? Are they eager to maintain a relationship with the show’s producer? Do they value positive critical buzz or a dedicated core audience? All those factors probably went into Fox’s early renewal of “Fringe” for a full Season 4.

The broadcast networks already have made some decisions, but other shows remain “on the bubble” (a carpenter’s term meaning “could go either way”). Schedules will be set by the third week in May, when the networks announce their new lineups at ceremonies in New York known as upfronts, so named because their purpose is to sell advertising for the season in advance (or up front) of the season. ABC goes first, on May 17; the other networks follow.

Is your favorite on the “bubble” list? If you feel the need to lobby, go to the network’s website (NBC.com, etc.) and look for the “contact us” section, usually at the bottom.

Or seek out and join an online “save our show” campaign. Except in extraordinary cases, though, viewer campaigning or organized efforts have little effect.

Copyright 2011 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.