Turnout is key to SB 5 vote

Although a statewide poll shows that Ohioans would reject the new Republican-orchestrated law that takes away most collective bargaining rights for public workers, it’s a long time to the November general election. That’s when voters will decide if Senate Bill 5 should remain on the books. The legislation was passed by the GOP dominated General Assembly and signed into law March 31 by Republican Gov. John Kasich.

But even though the poll by Wenzel Strategies of Columbus shows 51 percent of the respondents favoring repeal, including 54 percent who identified themselves as independents, the outcome of the actual vote in November will depend on turnout.

And unless the public employee unions and the Ohio Democratic Party are able to trigger much more interest in this election than there was last November, SB 5 will be upheld. That’s because Republicans overwhelmingly support the changes made to the collective bargaining policy that has been in effect for more than two decades.

The importance of turnout was clearly demonstrated during last year’s general election in which Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland was seeking re-election. Republican Kasich, who wasn’t given much chance of winning when he announced his candidacy, not only conducted a brilliant campaign, but was assisted by the large number of independents and a goodly number of Democrats who were disillusioned with Strickland’s management of the economy in Ohio.

Even Democratic strongholds like Mahoning and Trumbull counties failed to deliver.

Statewide ticket

Overall, last year’s turnout in Ohio was down 4 percent compared to 2006, when Strickland first ran and carried Democratic candidates on the statewide ticket to victory. About 218,000 fewer Ohioans voted last year despite there being 178,000 more registered voters than there were in 2006. In percentages, the turnout was 49 percent vs. 53 percent.

In Trumbull County, the turnout dropped by 8.6 percent, while in Mahoning the drop was 7.9 percent.

Mahoning County Democratic Party Chairman David Betras, who keeps insisting that he delivered what was expected of him, cannot deny the reality that too many residents stayed home. And of those who did go to the polls, too many voted for the Republican nominee for governor.

Of the 181,759 registered voters in Mahoning County, 87,414 went to the polls last November, for a 48.1 percent turnout.

In 2006, 56 percent turned out — 98,500 of the 178,894 registered voters.

What all the numbers reveal is that in order for the Democrats to be successful, the party faithful must show up in large numbers, and the independents must be in the “D” column.

It’s a tall order, even with an issue as volatile as the GOP assault on collective bargaining.

The one finding in the Wenzel Strategies poll — it was conducted April 6-7 with a sample of 1,264 voters — that will give opponents of SB 5 some solace is Kasich’s approval rating. Thirty-seven percent of the respondents gave him positive job approval marks, compared with 56 percent who gave him negative marks.

According to Fritz Wenzel, 43 percent said Kasich is doing a “poor” job, “the strongest negative option available to poll respondents.”

Even among Republicans, 65 percent gave the governor positive job performance ratings. But Wenzel said the survey shows Kasich is in trouble with independents, 59 percent of whom gave him negative marks for his job performance.

But the million-dollar question is whether Kasich and the Republicans will use the seven months, a life time in politics, to rebuild their political fortunes.

Changing fortunes

If the economy changes to the extent that good paying jobs are being created, and governments at all levels slash spending of taxpayer dollars, as the governor has demanded, the GOP will get the credit.

But if the 51 percent of the respondents in the poll who believe the state is on the wrong track don’t change their minds by November, the new collective bargaining law will be repealed.

Kasich has said he isn’t governed by polls and believes the people of Ohio will embrace his agenda once they start seeing the results.

In the end, it comes down to which party will show up in November.