Unions and Dems will be tested

With the black cloud of last year’s statewide election still hanging over their heads, Democrats in Ohio — and their union allies — face an uphill battle as they attempt to overturn a new law that restricts collective bargaining rights for 360,000 public-union employees.

Why an uphill battle? Because the very voters who swept the Republicans into power last November are now being asked to repudiate Gov. John Kasich and the GOP majority in the House and Senate.

Democrats and the unions intend to put the collective bargaining law (Senate Bill 5) on the November ballot so Ohioans can have a say.

The outcome of the referendum will have an impact on the 2012 presidential election in Ohio, a key battleground state.

Rejection of SB 5 in this year’s general election will bode well for the Democrats’ political fortunes next year. President Barack Obama and the rest of the ticket will undoubtedly fuel the anger and resentment toward the Republicans that will not have dissipated.

But if SB 5 is affirmed by the voters, Gov. Kasich and his allies will not only view the outcome as support for their agenda, but will go into the presidential election energized and confident.

Thus, while both sides have a lot to lose with the referendum, the stakes are higher for the Democrats and unions.

The campaign leading up to the general election will not be for the faint-hearted. Each side will attempt to cast the other as the enemy of the people.

And while the opponents of SB 5 have been heartened by the huge demonstrations by unionists in Columbus during consideration of the collective bargaining legislation, the proponents will tap into the growing resentment of private sector workers toward government employees.

Big spenders

They will also benefit from the millions of dollars individuals such as David and Charles Koch of Wisconsin, billionaire owners of Koch Industries, intend to spend in Ohio.

Finally, Republicans will play the “us vs. them” card. Last July, as Kasich’s pro-business gubernatorial campaign was picking up speed, the Buckeye Institute For Public Policy Solutions published a study titled, “The Grand Bargain is Dead.” The cover sheet also contained this synopsis of the findings: “The Compensation of State Government Workers Far Exceeds Their Private-Sector Neighbors.”

That message will be heard over and over throughout the state.

“Simply realigning state government worker compensation packages to match those of their private-sector peers would save taxpayers over $2.1 billion over the next two years, which is nearly 28 percent of the $8 billion budget deficit we need to eliminate,” the study said.

And, a comparison of government pay and private-sector pay would make for compelling sound bites: “A median state government worker makes 24.6 percent more than her private-sector peer ($36,858 v. $29,586).”

Here are some recommendations contained in the study by the Buckeye Institute, a conservative public policy think tank:

Freeze pay, including step increases and longevity pay, until private-sector pay catches up with government pay.

Eliminate longevity pay.

Require employees to use or lose leave.

Have government workers pay the same share of health care premiums as workers in the private sector do.

Reduce sick leave benefits to the level paid in the private sector.

Reduce the employer pension match to the level paid in the private sector.

Make eligibility for pensions the same as eligibility for Social Security payments.

While Democrats in the General Assembly charged that SB 5 was an attack on the Middle Class and was designed to bust the unions, Republicans argued that public sector workers are out of touch with economic realities.

It’s a message that will be repeated over and over, with facts to bolster it.

Here’s how Gov. Kasich framed the debate when he signed SB 5 into law Thursday night:

“When Ohioans find out that your average private worker pays 23 percent of their health-care costs and your average city worker pays 9 percent, that’s not about enemy. That’s about balance.”

Given what’s going on in the private sector, SB 5 certainly strikes a chord.