Both candidates should do well in gubernatorial debate

By Joe Hallett

COLUMBUS DISPATCH

COLUMBUS

If you’re hoping for a faux pas, a flameout or a flub in tonight’s first televised gubernatorial debate between Democrat Ted Strickland and Republican John Kasich, prepare to be disappointed.

These guys know their way around a podium.

“You’ve got a Fox News personality running against a preacher — they both ought to do pretty well,” said Mary Anne Sharkey, a political analyst who has helped Democrats and Republicans prepare for debates.

Strickland, the former Methodist minister, and Kasich, the former TV commentator, are rhetorically polished and should be well-prepared for the battery of pointed questions from four reporters representing Ohio’s major newspapers.

The debate takes place in Columbus at 8 tonight. It will be televised by the Ohio News Network.

“I would be surprised if either of them makes a big rhetorical mistake,” said John Green, a University of Akron political scientist. “They might make a political mistake, but I think they’ll speak very clearly and cogently.”

What remains to be seen, though, is whether Kasich or Strickland will eschew sound bites in favor of substance. So far in the campaign, both have shied from detailing how they would close a projected $8 billion deficit to balance the two-year state budget that must be enacted by June 30.

“They will avoid any specific discussion of the budget in the debate,” predicted Ohio State University political scientist Paul Beck.

Too bad, Green said: “A number of people in Ohio will be disappointed about that because just about everybody agrees, including the candidates, that the budget situation next year is going to be very severe.”

But considering the alternatives for closing the impending deficit — raising taxes, deep cuts in spending on services, or both — Green understands the peril: “Many voters, frankly, don’t want to hear the bad news.”

Tonight’s debate is fraught with opportunity and political danger for the candidates. Foremost, both must avoid a haunting gaffe that takes on a life of its own. By dint of his personality, Kasich could be more prone to an “uh-oh” moment, political observers agreed.

“The thing you have to caution John Kasich about, and I’m sure his advisers are, is not to be a smart aleck,” Sharkey said. “That’s sort of John’s soft underbelly — that he comes off too glib. But he’s a very good speaker; he’s charismatic and he’s got a lot of talent.”

Dale Butland, a consultant who has helped prepare numerous Democrats for debates, said “a bad mistake would be more damaging to Kasich than it would be to Strickland, because he’s never been governor.”

Green said the debate is a prime-time debut for Kasich. “He has an opportunity to educate people on himself and his policies in a positive way. That’s where a mistake might prove to be very costly. An awful lot of people who tune in know very little about him, so there is a chance to fill that in in a positive way.”