Kasich lead narrows, new OHNO poll finds

October 24, 2010 at 12:10a.m.

• Valley poll respondents explain their choices

By TOM TROY

Toledo Blade Politics Writer

TOLEDO

The race for governor of Ohio has narrowed to a 2-point gap as Democrats are showing more interest in next week’s election, according to a poll commissioned by the Ohio Newspaper Organization.

Republican challenger John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland 49-47 percent, in the poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for the group of eight large-city newspapers in Ohio that includes The Vindicator.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman holds a commanding lead of 58-39 percent over Democrat Lee Fisher — a chasm that parallels the fund-raising success Portman, a former congressman and Bush administration official, has had compared with Fisher, former state attorney general and current lieutenant governor.

Eric Rademacher, co-director of the institute, said, “There’s certainly an uptick in excitement on the Democratic side, which has allowed the race to become more competitive between Strickland and Kasich.

“It could break either way. Certainly it’s the case that Democratic excitement is increasing in the latest poll, but Republican excitement is also very high,” Rademacher said.

Pollsters interviewed 839 likely voters by home phone and cell phone around the state Oct. 14-18. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Unlike the Senate race, Kasich and Strickland each has raised enough money to engage in a spirited campaign through heavy TV and direct- mail advertising and live campaign events around Ohio.

Toledoan Heather Elliott said she’s seen the ads and liked what they say about Strickland.

“I kind of like everything that he stands for. I think he’s going to do what we need, and I just have a good feeling about him,” said Elliott, 41, a billing clerk in a medical office and the mother of two teenagers.

About Kasich, “a lot of the [Strickland] commercials I have seen, maybe fair or unfair, they have swayed me against him.”

Kasich supporter Jim Haboustak, 65, of Cuyahoga County, said the Republican has the right approach to the economy.

“I think taxes are too high and I think the whole state is overregulated and I think it’s partly contributing to driving away businesses,” said Haboustak, a retired metallurgical engineer.

“I think we’re due for a change. I don’t appreciate Ted Strickland’s policies, and I remember Kasich from when he was in Congress. I kind of liked his policies,” Haboustak said.

The poll results reflect a volatile electorate.

A survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. on Oct. 20 put Strickland on top, 48-47 percent. One day earlier, a Quinnipiac (Conn.) University poll showed Kasich ahead 51-41. The Ohio Poll of Oct. 15 — conducted by the same institute that conducted the Ohio Newspaper Poll — showed Kasich’s lead at 51-43.

The Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted in late September showed Kasich up 49-45 percent.

Since the the September Ohio Newspaper Organization Poll, the number of Democrats who described themselves as “extremely interested” increased from 29 percent to 36 percent in October.

In the same period, the number of “extremely interested” Republicans jumped from 40 percent in September to 48 percent in the current poll.

While the poll shows some momentum for Strickland, other dynamics in the poll favor Kasich. Among voters who don’t think they’ll change their mind, Kasich leads 52 percent to 48 percent.

Respondents’ opinions about the economy and taxation favor Kasich, who is known for having helped balance the federal budget in 1997 as chairman of the U.S. House Budget Committee.

Respondents ranked Kasich as more likely than Strickland to “bring needed change to Ohio” by 49-39 percent, “improve Ohio’s economy” by 45-41 percent, and lower Ohio’s unemployment rate by 42-37 percent.

Respondents said by a 55-27 percent split that Strickland is more likely than Kasich to “raise my taxes.”

Kasich’s strongest support is on the west side of Ohio, including southwest, central and northwest, possibly reflecting the Republican dominance as well as the fact that Kasich’s congressional district was in central Ohio.

Strickland’s strongest areas are in the heavily Democratic northeast and the economically hard-hit southeast, which he served as a member of Congress before his election as governor in 2006.

Both candidates enjoy support in their own parties. Strickland gets 90 percent of the Democratic vote and 40 percent of independents, while Kasich got 84 percent of the Republican vote and 46 percent of the independent vote.

Males prefer Kasich 53-43 percent, while women split 50 percent for Strickland and 45 percent for Kasich. Women were more likely to be undecided or prefer another candidate.

Strickland was supported by 88 percent of African Americans and 43 percent of whites, while Kasich received 10 percent of the black vote and 52 percent of white respondents.

Gwen Frisby, 29, a homemaker living in Sidney, Ohio, near Dayton, said she’s planning to vote for Strickland because of the negative tone of the Republican ads against him.

“I think he’s done probably as good as anybody can do in these times,” Frisby said. “It’s almost more that I don’t like how the Republicans are acting toward him, like it’s his fault that we’re in this mess.”

She said Ohio relies heavily on manufacturing and when the economy dips, so does employment. Laying the blame on Strickland for the loss of nearly 400,000 jobs since he took office in 2007, as Kasich does, is “inflammatory and misleading,” Frisby said.

In the Senate race, Frisby said she doesn’t know Portman as well, but favors political balance between Congress and the White House.

“I think there are some very good things about Republicans. We just can’t keep spending money, there has to be some frugality involved, so there has to be some balance,” Ms. Frisby said.

Fred Millington II of Westerville, near Columbus, wants Kasich to win because he wants a lower-profile government.

“He’s talking about maybe repealing the state income tax. I like the thought of that,”said Millington, 43, who works for a plumbing company.