So many polls so little time

COLUMBUS

The good news is there are only a couple of more weeks left in this campaign season, meaning a swift end to the junk that’s been clogging your mailboxes and airwaves in recent weeks.

The bad news is there are still a couple of weeks left in this campaign season, meaning a temporary increase in the junk that’s been clogging your mailboxes and airwaves.

That includes near-daily poll numbers about how candidates are competing, spawning even more paper and electronic political ads by those who are leading the pre-Election Day race.

Depending on which ones you follow, you probably have a different understanding about what to expect on Nov. 2.

Some put Republican gubernatorial challenger John Kasich ahead of Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. Others have Strickland slightly ahead of Kasich, the result of increased advertising and public knowledge of the race.

Most of them put Republican Rob Portman light years ahead of Democrat Lee Fisher in the contest to fill George Voinovich’s U.S. Senate seat. And, nationally, many pollsters continue to suggest a Republican tidal wave in state and federal offices.

A reporter could spend all of his or her time writing about these polls, there’s that many of them being released.

For consistency’s sake, I chose early on to follow only two: the University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research’s Ohio Poll and the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute’s regular survey of registered or likely voters.

The latter had Kasich up over Strickland by 17 points in September and nine points earlier this month, showing a definite tightening in that race.

Huge lead

Portman, meanwhile, maintained a 19-point lead over Fisher in Quinnipiac polls this month and last month, giving a clear indication that the likely voters it spoke to are backing the former congressman and Bush administration official.

A new Ohio Poll appears to confirm both trends:

Among 705 likely voters questioned over the past week, 51 percent said they would vote for Kasich and 43 percent said they would vote for Strickland. Given a margin of error of 3-4 percent, that makes it a pretty even race.

But 58 percent said they were going to vote for Portman, versus 36 percent who planned to vote for Fisher.

And most of those questioned about both races (85 percent in the governor’s race and 86 percent in the Senate race) said they didn’t plan to change their mind.

A bottom line message that one could take from the results is that the governor’s race is going to be a nail-biter, while the Senate race is going to be over early on the evening of Nov. 2.

That’s if you believe the polls. As has often been said, particularly at this time of year, the only poll that really matters is the final count on Election Day.

Marc Kovac is The Vindicator’s Statehouse correspondent. E-mail him at mkovac@dixcom.com or on Twitter at OhioCapitalBlog