Do strategists mean what they say?

Associated Press

WASHINGTON

To hear top strategists from both parties tell it, Democratic candidates are clawing their way back from an electoral abyss, making small but measurable gains that might enable them to keep their congressional majorities this fall.

The question is, do these political pros really believe it? Or are both parties pushing a Democrats-are-improving narrative to motivate their core voters who, oddly enough, respond positively to the same message?

Whether it’s cynicism or reality, leaders in both parties are playing an expectations game aimed at voters who might stay home if they think their cause is either hopeless or assured of victory. These leaders say prospects are slightly less dire for Democrats, even though the party remains almost certain to suffer big losses in House, Senate and gubernatorial races on Nov. 2.

“Democrats have momentum,” said a recent three-page memo from Jennifer Crider, a top aide at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. She cited a pair of polls suggesting that voters, who preferred Republican candidates a short time ago, now are about evenly split on which party should run Congress.

Crider’s analysis omitted several polls that showed a clear GOP advantage on the “generic ballot” question. But a new Washington Post-ABC News poll found that Democrats have halved the Republicans’ early September edge.

Some top Republicans also are warning that their party’s expected victories after two years of Democrat Barack Obama’s presidency might not be as extensive as once thought. Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, head of the GOP committee that oversees House races, raised eyebrows last week with a memo suggesting that Republicans may fall short of taking over the House.

“With less than a month to go,” Sessions wrote, “it’s clear that Democrats will, at the very least, lose functional control of the House.”

Many saw the term “functional control” as a hint that Republicans might have to settle for trying to impede the progress of a significantly reduced Democratic majority in the next Congress.

A party’s net gain of, say, 35 or 38 House seats in almost any election year would trigger huge celebrations. But GOP officials raised expectations so high this summer that many partisans will be deeply disappointed by anything less than 40 seats — the magic number for taking control of the 435-member chamber.