Public opinion polls do matter

Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to the Mahoning Valley last week was supposed to have taken place about a month ago. However, Democratic Party leaders couldn’t find anyone willing to host a fund-raising party for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland that would have featured the vice president.

Why? Because polls at that time showed Democrat Strickland, seeking a second four-year term on Nov. 2, trailing Republican John Kasich by a wide margin.

Indeed, a Quinnipiac poll conducted between Sept. 9 and 14 had former Congressman Kasich with a 17-point lead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

A SurveyUSA poll around the same time had the Republican leading 52-40.

And, a CNN/Time survey had Strickland trailing his challenger by 7 points — 44 to 51.

‘Investment’

It is not surprising, therefore, that there weren’t any takers for hosting the governor and vice president. Individuals who contribute to political campaigns want some assurance that their “investment” will pay off. Those who give a lot of money don’t do so for altruistic reasons. They at least want to be able to say that they have connections in high places in government.

So, what changed in the month to not only bring the vice president to Mahoning County, but to have him attend a pricey meet-and-greet? Strickland’s poll numbers. The governor’s improving political fortunes are directly related to the launch of his television advertising campaign.

Over the summer, Kasich had dominated the airwaves with his commercials, but since Strickland’s began airing his, the margin in the polls has narrowed.

Consider: In a poll of likely voters conducted by CBS News/New York Times between Sept. 23 and 27, Kasich had a 1 point lead — well within the margin of error.

The Republican challenger led by 9 points in a Quinnipiac poll conducted Sept. 9 to Oct. 3.

However, RealClearPolitics, in its latest snapshot of the Strickland-Kasich race, ranks it a “toss up.” In averaging all the major polls from January, RCP showed Kasich with a 4.2-point advantage.

Vice President Biden’s visit to the Valley certainly provided the Strickland campaign with a needed boost.

Not only was Biden well received in the two public stops he made, the Golden Dawn Restaurant on Youngstown’s North Side, and Astro Shapes in Struthers, but he got to spend some time with select residents at the Canfield mansion of Bruce and Rori Zoldan,

There are reports that more than $100,000 was raised for the Strickland campaign.

But while Strickland’s narrowing of the gap has energized the campaign, Kasich continues to benefit from his consistent lead in the polls.

Case in point: A fund-raiser to be held Monday in the Valley lists as one of the co-hosts Tom Humphries, the chief executive officer of the Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber.

Significant

Humphries’ name on the list is significant because the chamber has not endorsed in the governor’s race. In addition, Humphries has a strong relationship with Congressman Tim Ryan of Niles, D-17th, who has close ties to Gov. Strickland.

Indeed, because of those ties and the fact that he represented the 6th Congressional district before he became governor, Strickland has spent a great deal of time in this region.

But while local Democrats, led by Mahoning County Democratic Party Chairman David Betras, are spitting nails over Humphries’ support of Kasich, the question that should be asked is this: Is it wrong for the Valley to hedge its bets?

There’s no doubt that had the governor enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls, the chamber head and others would not be jumping on the Republican’s bandwagon.

But, given that the race is a toss-up and Kasich has consistently led in the polls, doesn’t it make sense for the boss of a pro-business organization, the chamber, to be backing the Republican?

In the end, it’s all about the Valley having access to whoever is in the governor’s mansion.

For his part, Betras is doing what any good party chairman is supposed to do — tossing grenades.