GOP 2012 race playing out in New Hampshire

Opinion: October 8, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

CONCORD, N.H.

The turning leaves in New Hampshire herald the onset of winter. The influx of Republican presidential hopefuls foreshadows 2012.

In the last two weeks, local GOP candidates have received boosts from four prominent Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

McCain made clear he won’t seek the presidency again, but each of the other three could emerge here as the GOP establishment’s principal 2012 candidate, underscoring New Hampshire’s evolving role in Republican presidential politics.

None of the nation’s last three presidents — Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — won New Hampshire’s traditional first-in-the-nation primary, though victories by Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and McCain in 2008 helped them win their party’s nominations.

A different circumstance

But McCain’s 2000 and 2008 victories — and last month’s key primary results — show how the state differs from the other two holding early GOP presidential tests, Iowa and South Carolina, by withstanding the increased influence of social conservatives and tea party activists.

Just last month, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and former Rep. Charlie Bass resisted the conservative tide that has swamped many establishment Republicans this year by turning back stiff primary challenges from tea party candidates.

If the GOP’s embattled establishment wing is to assert a major role in what looms as a bitter 2012 contest for both the presidential nomination and control of the party, it almost certainly will have to happen here.

The Iowa caucuses, which tend to attract more party activists than casual voters, have been increasingly dominated over the past two decades by social conservatives, who gave first place in 2008 to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

They also control the South Carolina GOP, though McCain was able to win there, in part because Huckabee was ill-prepared for the post-Iowa campaign and the long-shot candidacy of actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson drained off some conservative votes.

To be sure, some of the more conservative 2012 GOP prospects have visited New Hampshire, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. But the Concord Monitor noted Sunday that Romney and Pawlenty have been there more and have spent large amounts helping local GOP candidates.

Besides, only once in recent years has the more conservative GOP contender won here. In 1996, commentator Pat Buchanan took the primary by a narrow margin, helped by the fact that his two top rivals, Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander, split the establishment vote almost evenly.

Another factor will favor the less outspokenly conservative Republicans in the 2012 New Hampshire primary. Registered independents, who outnumber both Democrats and Republicans, are free to vote in either primary.

Since Obama, like most incumbents, is unlikely to face a major primary challenge, many independents probably will vote in the GOP primary, reducing the influence of the hard-core conservatives.

Support from independents was a factor in McCain’s 2000 and 2008 triumphs, especially his 2000 trouncing of Bush.

Vacation home

So it would hardly be a big surprise if Romney — who owns a vacation home here and leads all rivals in 2012 polls after running second in 2008 — puts major emphasis on New Hampshire. So might others who could fare less well in Iowa.

And in another signal of New Hampshire’s role, the former Massachusetts governor keynoted the recent Republican State Convention here. Sarah Palin, who has sought to establish herself as a leader of the tea party faction, headlined a major GOP dinner in Iowa but has not been here since her 2008 vice presidential campaign.

For now, as elsewhere, the focus is on 2010. But it will turn to 2012 long before the next fall foliage season begins.

Carl Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Service.