Survey: Recovery will remain steady, slow

Associated Press

NEW YORK

The pace of the U.S. economic recovery will remain steady but slow in the face of persistently high unemployment and heavy debt burdens, according to a new survey.

The National Association for Business Economics survey, set to be released today, found economists now expect growth of 2.7 percent this year, up slightly from the previous forecast of 2.6 percent.

For 2011, the group still expects an economic expansion of 2.6 percent.

The likelihood of either stagflation or relapse into recession was seen as low. But high unemployment, debt and severe loss of wealth are expected to hamper a more-robust rebound, according to the survey.

The 51 members surveyed by the group said they also expect consumer spending to remain modest, with this year’s holiday retail sales expected to rise just 2.5 percent from last year.

Meanwhile, the number of jobs employers add to their payrolls is forecast to average less than 150,000 a month before picking up in the latter half of next year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated at 9.5 percent or higher through early next year. It’s expected to ease only slightly to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011.

That would mark the weakest post-recession job recovery on record, the group said.