Will economy help Dems?

Opinion: May 14, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

On a recent Friday morning, President Barack Obama stepped into the Rose Garden to hail a third consecutive quarter of economic growth. “The economy that was losing jobs a year ago is creating jobs today,” he declared.

But his announcement was overshadowed by the expanding oil spill off the Louisiana coast. And the increase failed to meet expectations, prompting comments it was insufficient to add many jobs and sending yet another signal that the economic recovery may be too little and too late to help Democrats forestall big Republican gains in November’s congressional elections.

By most indicators, the economy is recovering from the worst economic recession in more than a generation. Even the jobless rate has begun to drop from its high of 10.1 percent last October.

But the decline has been agonizingly slow — it went back up again last month to 9.9 percent despite the addition of 290,000 jobs — and polls show most Americans don’t yet believe things are getting better. While this lag in job growth fits historical patterns, it is bolstering Republican arguments that Obama’s policies are not working.

Besides, as administration strategists acknowledge, the Democrats have enjoyed two big election victories in a row. They regained both houses of Congress in 2006 and padded their majorities in 2008, helped by new voters — especially minorities and the young — attracted by Obama’s historic candidacy.

Mid-term elections

In American politics, what goes up generally comes back down. And mid-term elections are notoriously difficult for new administrations, as witness the Republican comebacks in 1966 and 1994 and the Democratic rebound in 1982.

Many pundits believe the only real question this November is whether GOP gains enough seats to recapture one or both houses of Congress. They need 40 seats to win the House, an eminently reachable total, and 10 in the Senate, which will be harder.

Illustrating the Democratic dilemma is the fact they are defending 49 House districts carried in 2008 by Republican presidential nominee John McCain, such as Central Texas’ sprawling 17th District, where Rep. Chet Edwards has so far surmounted a GOP majority and a 2003 redistricting plan designed to defeat him.

Of the 79 seats independent analyst Stewart Rothenberg lists as in play, all but 11 are held by the Democrats. He predicts a GOP gain of at least 25 to 30 seats.

Fellow analyst Charlie Cook rates 67 House seats as currently competitive, of which Republicans hold only five. Cook has already said that, barring some major change, he expects an outcome similar to 1994, when Republicans gained more than 50 seats and the House majority.

In the Senate, Democratic control seems safer because the party’s current 59-41 margin, including two Independents who generally vote Democratic, means Republicans need to gain 10 seats to take control.

Rothenberg predicts a Republican gain of five to seven seats. Cook lists four Democratic seats as trending Republican and four others as toss-ups, but he notes that in most elections, most close races follow the national tide.

While this outlook seems bleak for the Democrats, the picture isn’t totally negative. Obama remains more popular than other politicians, with his job approval hovering at or just below the crucial 50 percent level.

Party’s base

A popular president can motivate his party’s base, and he’ll work hard to turn out the minorities and young voters who flocked to him in 2008 — but are less likely to vote in mid-term elections.

So far, the Democrats have more money in the bank. And they’ve recognized the GOP threat far sooner than their 1994 counterparts, who were caught napping in many races.

Unlike 1994, House leaders vow they won’t make Democratic members vote on many controversial issues for the rest of the year. They’d be happy if immigration and climate change measures remain stalemated in the Senate, remembering how votes for gun control cost several rural Democrats in 1994.

Interestingly, one traditional pre-election measure, an economy-based system devised by Yale economist Ray Fair, shows the Democrats polling 51.63 percent of the two-party House vote, 4 points less than two years ago but enough to keep control by 13 seats.

Most Democratic strategists would feel a lot better if there was a speed-up in the economic recovery in general, and the unemployment rate in particular.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune.