Dems face challenge

Opinion: March 12, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

By DICK POLMAN

Philadelphia Inquirer

It’s crunch time for President Obama and the congressional Democrats. The political stakes are clear. If they want to ensure that they will be slaughtered in the November congressional elections, all they need to do in the weeks ahead is screw up their golden opportunity to pass health-care reform.

If they do, they will create the optimal conditions for losing their majorities — much the way they were decimated in November 1994, when the failure to enact Clinton-sponsored health-care reform prompted millions of disappointed Democrats to stay home on Election Day.

Partisan voters

The current conventional wisdom decrees that Democrats will lose scores of seats in November even if they do pass health reform; according to polls, swing-voting independents generally oppose the sweep and price tag of Obama’s proposed overhaul. But midterm elections are typically dominated by the most partisan voters. If the left is more enthused and motivated than the right, Democrats tend to win. If the right is more stoked than the left, Republicans tend to win.

Obama won a decisive ’08 victory (in part by campaigning for health reform), the Democrats have huge margins in both congressional chambers, yet they’ve barely done squat to move the Democratic agenda. Failing now on health reform — when they have the votes for passage and the parliamentary route for passage — would likely put the kibosh on Democratic turnout.

Dick Polman is a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.