In matters of debt and GDP, batting 100 is far from perfect

In many areas of life there are numbers that in and of themselves may be of little significance, but they carry considerable symbolic weight. A 25th anniversary, a 50th birthday, a 10,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average.

A couple is no more or less married the day before or after their silver anniversary, a man should feel no older the day before or the day after his 50th birthday, and there’s little difference in a stock portfolio if the Dow is at 9,999 or 10,001. But those benchmark numbers have an effect on people, nonetheless.

Which brings us back to President Obama’s looming number: 100 percent. As in the national debt reaching 100 percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. For every dollar’s worth of goods produced in the United States, there will be a dollar of debt on the books.

It is now projected with some authority that the 100 percent threshold will be reached within about two years and will stay at a 100 percent plateau for a few years at least. The debt is now $13 trillion and the GDP about $14.5 trillion. The projected equalizing point is about $16 trillion in 2012.

While the administration can argue — and with validity — that the percentage of debt compared to GDP has grown more under Republican presidents than Democratic presidents, that probably won’t resonate with the public.

Down and back in 70 years

The percentage of debt to GDP broke the 100 percent mark for the first time in the last days of World War II. It was 116 in 1945, 121 in 1947 and 105 in 1947. Then, under presidents Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter, it dropped steadily, to just under 32 percent in 1981. When President Reagan left office it was at 52 percent; at 66 percent at the end of Bush 41; 56 percent at the end of Clinton and 83 percent at the end of Bush 43. Under President Obama, it is projected to climb to 94 percent this year, 99 percent in 2011 and 100.8 percent in 2012.

The reality will be that President Obama will own that 100 percent number. And while a chart might show that the trend began in the early ’80s and while arguments will be made that the first years of his presidency were spent battling what’s being called the Great Recession, 100 percent is a very big number.

It is almost trite to say that the economy turns with about the same speed as an ocean liner, but it is true. Unemployment numbers may drop rather quickly, but they climb at an agonizingly slow pace.

Between the two basic schools of thought for speeding the process — cut taxes, increase social spending — there are nuances. And both extremes in the debate can point to historical examples where the other side’s strategy didn’t work.

If Obama could avoid hitting the magic number of 100, it would be an enormous victory, at least psychologically. But cutting spending (thus reducing the debt) and increasing productivity (thus giving the GDP a bump) in roughly two years’ time wouldn’t be magic, it would be a miracle.

Which is not to say that Obama shouldn’t try.