Will Fidel attend Cuba’s Revolution Day events?

July 26, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

Associated Press

HAVANA, Cuba

It would be easy for Raul Castro to make headlines in a major Revolution Day speech today. All he has to do is bring up the 52 political prisoners he has agreed to release or discuss plans to open the island’s communist economy.

Of course, nothing Cuba’s 79-year-old president says will mean as much as whether elder brother Fidel is standing by his side. A recent spate of appearances by the revolutionary leader after four years of near-total seclusion has everybody talking. Could this be Fidel’s coming-out party?

“If Fidel is there, it will cause a huge stir. It will be very important,” said Wayne Smith, a former top American diplomat in Havana and senior fellow at the Washington- based Center for International Policy.

He said the elder Castro brother’s presence would make clear to many in Washington that the 83-year old revolutionary still has a strong hand in affairs of state. That, Smith says, would not be viewed positively by those waiting for Cuba to allow more economic, political and social changes.

“The thought has been that they are moving toward reforms under Raul, but that they might be moving more energetically if not for the fact that Fidel Castro is still sitting on the porch, and Raul is afraid he might not be enthusiastic,” Smith said. “If Fidel does come back, that could suggest they aren’t going to move as fast as they should with these changes.”

Fidel Castro ruled Cuba for nearly half a century until he was forced to step down in 2006 and undergo emergency intestinal surgery, turning power over — first temporarily, then permanently — to his brother.

Since then, Castro has lived in near-total seclusion. Until this month, that is.

The former president seemingly has been everywhere, most recently making an emotional visit Saturday to a town outside Havana to honor fallen revolutionary fighters.

There he read a statement that was right out of his much- weathered revolutionary playbook, turning Cuba’s tortured half-century conflict with the United States into a positive.

“The simple fact of maintaining this fight for such a long time provides proof of what a small country can achieve against a gigantic, imperial power,” Castro said.