Arabs fear a nuclear Iran

Opinion: July 26, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

One of the open secrets surrounding the Iranian nuclear program is that Tehran’s Arab neighbors dread the prospect of a Persian bomb more than anyone else does.

For years Arab leaders quietly told foreign visitors that they cannot accept a nuclear-armed Iran; that it would prove catastrophic for them and for the region. In public, however, they always spoke in conciliatory terms, calling for negotiations, telegraphing to Tehran that they want only a peaceful solution. That is now changing as Arabs become increasingly concerned about facing a future with Tehran in possession of nuclear weapons.

In a stunning departure from the Arab diplomatic script, the ambassador from the United Arab Emirates to Washington revealed — in public and before microphones — that he wants the United States to use force to stop Iran.

Riots, protests

Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival, Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba conceded that a U.S. attack against Iranian facilities would trigger a backlash of riots and protests. But, he explained, “If you are asking me, ’Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran?’ my answer is still the same: We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.”

Otaiba, whose country lies less than 100 miles from Iran’s coast, noted that Iran is much more of a threat to the UAE than to the United States. If countries “lack the assurance that the U.S. is willing to confront Iran, they will start running for cover towards Iran.”

Otaiba subtly removed another line from the traditional script, the part that suggests Israel is also a threat. “There’s no other threat,” he declared, “There’s no country in the region that is a threat to the UAE.”

The idea of containing Iran, he said, makes him “very nervous.” If Iran’s behavior cannot be contained now, he pointed out, why think “that once they have a nuclear program we’re going to be more successful in containing them?”

Nobody has spoken as bluntly as Otaiba, but we have heard veiled hints about this before. When the Saudi Foreign Minister visited Washington in February, he uttered the usual support for a diplomatic process. But he warned that history shows when a weapon is introduced in the Middle East, it ends up being used. Then he noted that sanctions are a long-term approach and “we need immediate resolutions rather than gradual resolution.”

The UAE foreign ministry denied the report of Otaiba’s statements, calling them “inaccurate and taken out of context” but the ambassador’s words were recorded for all to hear. Iran responded with fury, warning of a “teeth-breaking” response.

Another curious denial came last month after the Times of London revealed that Saudi Arabia has granted Israeli fighter planes access to a corridor leading to Iran. The Saudis, of course, would deny facilitating an attack on a fellow Muslim nation. And yet, the belief that Iran is more of a threat to the Arabs, their historic rivals, than to anyone else, is becoming widespread.

In a recent article, the popular Saudi cleric Aidh al-Qarni wrote a column entitled Oh Arabs, Iran is Coming, saying the West would not prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, which Tehran would then aim at Arabs, not Israelis.

In its earliest days the revolutionary Islamic Republic stoked animosity between Persians and Arabs and has urged the people to turn against their governments. Thirty years ago, the Ayatollah Khomeini declared that “Mecca is now in the hand of a group of infidels.” Saudis shot back that Iran was in the hands of a “corrupt bunch of thieves,” who had created a “slaughterhouse.”

Increasing tension

Tension between Arab leaders and Iran is increasing. But Tehran looks confident and defiant, while the Arabs look nervous.

A Kuwaiti paper revealed authorities uncovered an Iranian spy ring in Kuwait. To calm the situation, the government banned reporting on the matter. The respected Arab commentator Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed wrote in the daily Asharq al-Awsat that “Obama and his refusal to use the threat of force in a genuine manner has made everybody — not just Tehran — believe that nothing will stop the Iranian project.”

Time is clearly growing short for Obama’s strategy to produce results. Before long, the most dangerous region in the world could become far, far more unstable.

Frida Ghitis writes about global affairs for The Miami Herald. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune.