Urban dwellers to exceed rural ones in China

July 5, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

Associated Press

BEIJING

China’s urban population is expected to surpass 700 million in the next five years, exceeding the number of rural dwellers for the first time, the country’s top population-policy official was cited as saying in a report Sunday.

The shift has major implications for the government at a time when Chinese cities already are struggling to cope with overcrowding, overloaded infrastructure and a widening rich-poor gap.

Li Bin, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, also said the country’s population — already the world’s largest at 1.3 billion — is expected to reach 1.4 billion in 2015, the China Daily newspaper reported. It will include 200 million people over age 60, he said.

China was traditionally an agrarian society, but a booming economy driven by industrial growth over the past three decades has drawn millions of young workers to coastal cities in search of factory jobs and opportunities.

The government now is trying to attract industries to its inland provinces, where many rural villages and towns are populated largely by grandparents and young children. By increasing job opportunities closer to workers’ homes, Beijing hopes to reduce the strain on cities and improve the social situation in the countryside.

Demographers say that in the next few decades, China’s population will begin to shrink in part due to a government policy limiting many families to one child. At that time, the country may find itself with too few young workers to support an aging population.