Murtha’s death sets stage for prominent House race

February 10, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

JOHNSTOWN, Pa. (AP) — Democrats have long dominated the late Rep. John Murtha’s district in western Pennsylvania, but Republicans have made inroads in recent years that could help them win back the seat — and some longtime Murtha supporters say they’re open to voting for a GOP candidate.

Rose Marie Favina, 69, described herself as a Democrat who supported Murtha and particularly liked what she called his “pro-life” views. Now she’s considering switching to the GOP and plans to vote for the best candidate for Murtha’s seat, whatever the party.

“I don’t like being called a liberal, because I’m not a liberal,” said Favina at the Eat’n Center, a deli and grocery in Johnstown, in the heart of Pennsylvania’s hardscrabble coal and steel country.

Political analysts said Tuesday that they expect a competitive contest in the race to replace Murtha, whose ability to steer federal dollars to the economically strapped district made him a powerful figure even beyond Pennsylvania.

The race is expected to be a marquee contest. A Republican win in the traditionally Democratic stronghold would be hugely symbolic and could create momentum for a national GOP that sees itself as resurgent heading into the 2010 midterm elections.

Murtha died Monday at a hospital at age 77 after complications from gallbladder surgery. Gov. Ed Rendell says he hasn’t decided when to schedule a special election to replace him.

“The unfortunate passing of Murtha opens yet another seat Republicans think they can make a run at,” said Muhlenberg College political scientist Chris Borick. “They’re optimistic.”

Murtha’s district encompasses all or part of nine counties in southwestern Pennsylvania and embodies the region’s image of coal mines, steel mills and blue-collar values. He was elected in 1974 and has won re-election over the years by large margins.

Registered Democrats enjoy a 2-to-1 ratio to Republicans in the district, a November 2009 tally by state election officials showed. But many of those Democrats are socially conservative, the kind of voters that used to be called “Reagan Democrats” back in the 1980s.

“This is a hardscrabble, blue- collar, ethnic, culturally conservative, pro-life, pro-gun, very patriotic district,” said Terry Madonna, a professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. “These folks have deep concerns about the social proclivities of the party in recent years on abortion rights, gay rights and guns.”

“I expect we’ll win that seat,” said state GOP chairman Rob Gleason, who doubles as the party’s chairman in Cambria County, where Johnstown is.

Some names of potential Murtha successors are already beginning to surface in the sprawling 12th District.

Republicans planning to compete in the special election include William Russell, Murtha’s opponent in 2008, and Tim Burns, a businessman from the town of Eighty Four.

Prospective Democratic candidates include Mark Singel, who was lieutenant governor under the late Gov. Robert P. Casey and now works as a lobbyist in Harrisburg, the state capital, and state Sen. John Wozniak, both from Johnstown.