CDC: Flu death figures mislead

August 27, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

Los Angeles Times

LOS ANGELES

Most reports about seasonal influenza cite an average of about 36,000 deaths in a typical season, but that number is both too high and grossly misleading, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

The actual average is a little over 23,000, the agency reported in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. But even that figure is misleading, the report added, because the actual numbers have ranged from as low as 3,300 deaths up to nearly 50,000 over the last 30 years. The period covered in the analysis goes up to 2007 and does not include last year’s H1N1-influenza pandemic.

“There is no average flu season,” lead author Dr. David Shay of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said in a news conference. The number of deaths “can vary dramatically” from year to year, Shay said.

The number of deaths in a given year depends on a variety of factors, including how long the flu season lasts, how many people get sick and who gets sick. But by far the most important factor is the strain of flu that predominates in a given season.

When an H3N2 strain predominates, the number of deaths typically is about 2.7 times higher than in years when an H1N1 strain predominates. Researchers are not sure why that is, but it occurs at least in part because the H3N2 virus mutates more rapidly. “Even if you have been sick with it in the past, you are more likely to get a subsequent infection,” Shay said. It also tends to make a greater number of older people ill.