Win in Afghanistan is a loss

Opinion: August 21, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

By Tommy Sowers

McClatchy-Tribune

An old military maxim states, “Amateurs think about strategy and professionals think about logistics.” The U.S. Constitution clearly empowers Congress to be active in logistic questions of war. After the release of documents questioning current and past operations in Afghanistan, Congress faces a tough logistical question about the future — who will pay for the Afghan military once America leaves? That the answer is not the Afghans, nor America, nor our allies, which means that America will lose in Afghanistan even if the current training mission succeeds.

Security forces

All roads to success in Afghanistan depend on building the Afghan security forces so our troops can finally come home. My experience in helping build a professional Iraqi military from scratch was no easy task, but my challenges in Iraq paled next to the challenges faced by our troops in Afghanistan: the second most corrupt nation in the world, without a strong or legitimate central government, poor education and infrastructure, and a tribal mentality.

Setting aside these significant challenges, logistics determine American blood and tax dollars will create a force too small to secure Afghanistan yet too large for Afghanistan to maintain. The U.S. Army’s current counterinsurgency doctrine recommends a minimum force ratio of 1 to 50 (i.e. an Afghan policeman or soldier to keep the peace for every 50 civilians). Afghanistan’s current population is 29,121,000. Therefore, securing Afghanistan will require, at minimum, 582,000 Afghan security personnel, a force larger than the active U.S. Army.

Yet America’s current mission is not to expand the Afghan security force to 582,000, but 400,000. Even this reduced number will still cost Afghanistan at least 20 percent of its GDP, by far the greatest percentage on military spending by any nation.

Who will pay for the future Afghan army? The Afghans can’t. Our allies won’t. And America’s soaring deficits indicate America can’t pay forever.

After a decade of U.S. military sacrifice and billions of taxpayer dollars, America will have created 400,000 trained, armed but unpaid Afghans. Their future employment is the seed of the next Afghan civil war.

Tommy Sowers is an 11-year Army Special Forces veteran and a Democratic candidate for Congress from Missouri’s 8th Congressional District. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.