Pakistan’s humanitarian crisis could lead to political upheaval

For Americans to have a better understanding of what is taking place in Pakistan with the worst flooding in memory, think back to Aug. 29, 2005, when Hurricane Katrina blasted New Orleans. The death toll from the Category 3 storm was 1,836 people, with more than 75,000 rendered homeless.

The economic loss from Katrina, which also hit other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, has been pegged at $125 billion, with $66 billion in insured losses. By any measure, it was a natural disaster of historic proportions.

Now consider the disaster in Pakistan that is bigger than the 2004 Asian tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and this year’s Haiti earthquake: The death toll as a result of the flooding has surpassed 1,600, and is growing; 20 million people (12 percent of the population) have been displaced; towns and villages have been destroyed; and, 6 million Pakistanis (half of them children) face the threat of cholera, dysentery, typhoid and hepatitis.

A top United Nations envoy said this week that “many billions” of dollars will be needed to rebuild Pakistan, a country that does not have the financial wherewithal to deal with the following reality: One-fifth of the country is inundated with water. The country’s fragile economy has been devastated.

The United States and the rest of the international community have a decision to make: Quickly join in a concerted effort to send aid to the Pakistanis, or sit back and watch the people rise up in anger against the democratically elected government, thereby opening the door for Islamic extremists to incite political unrest.

Why should the world care if the government falls and Islamists take over? Because Pakistan is a nuclear power. It is not far-fetched to imagine a scenario in which the country and its arch rival, India, which also has nuclear weapons, are suddenly on the verge of a catastrophic war. Indeed, a government under the control of religious fanatics would pose an immediate threat to Afghanistan, where the democratically elected government of President Hamid Karzai is battling for its survival.

The NATO-led war on terrorism in Afghanistan, with the United States providing the largest number of troops and the most financial assistance, is designed to keep the Taliban and al-Qaida from regaining control of the country. But the insurgents, who operate from safe havens in the mountain region along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, have shown themselves to be well-trained, well-armed and deeply committed to topping the government in Kabul.

The flooding in the Pakistan, and the growing perception among the people who have lost everything that the international community — read that the United States and other western nations — does not care is bad news in the context of America’s war on global terrorism.

Skepticism

With 100 million of the nation’s 175 million people under the age of 25, the skepticism of the West and the feeling of abandonment make them easy prey for extremist Islamic groups that have close ties to the people outside the big cities.

According to the Associated Press, famed Pakistani musician Salman Ahmad explained the situation in these terms:

“All you need to do right now is give hope to those young people ... who have two possible futures. One of following their dreams, the other of being sucked into extremism.”

It’s an observation that should be taken to heart. There is immediate need for $460 million to provide food, shelter and clean water for the 6 million to 8 million victims for the next three months. There must be no delay in sending the money and other assistance to Pakistan. The stakes are too high — from a humanitarian and political standpoint.