Virginia typical for Dems

Opinion: August 13, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

APPOMATTOX, Va.

The state that best exemplified the national Democratic tide that elected Barack Obama in 2008 was Virginia.

And no state so illustrates the problems Democrats face this November.

Obama was the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to carry Virginia, as fellow Democrats Tom Perriello, Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly captured three Republican House seats.

Now, all three are in varying degrees of trouble. Their fate may indicate whether the Democrats can repel the Republican drive to regain the House.

Perriello, 35, represents the sprawling, mostly rural 5th District, and his Republican rival may be right in calling him a “poster child” for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority. The Yale-educated son of a local pediatrician backed most Obama major initiatives but counts heavily on his reputation for hard work and constituent service.

“He is one of the hardest-working freshmen, if not the most hard-working,” says David Wasserman, who rates House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

If Republicans can’t beat Perriello, his opponent, GOP state Sen. Robert Hurt, told The Weekly Standard, “we’re going to have a real hard time replacing ... Nancy Pelosi.”

Conflicting currents

As Perriello opened a 21-county town meeting schedule last week near where Lee surrendered to Grant, two 2008 supporters mirrored the conflicting currents.

Wayne Schmitt, 65, a retired EDS employee backed Perriello because he disliked his Republican predecessor. Now, he’s unsure. “I think he gave the 8th District of California an extra vote,” Schmitt said, referring to Pelosi’s district.

Perriello, who backed Obama 83 percent according to Congressional Quarterly, defended votes for the stimulus, health care and “cap-and-trade” energy bills. “People know that I’ve stood up and taken the tough votes,” he said.

He notes that he opposed Obama’s financial reform measure because 20 months in Congress “have convinced me both parties are a little close to the banks and Wall Street.”

Jan Peterson, 71, a retired Navy Department employee, said Perriello is doing “a really good job” but his re-election chances are “iffy at the most.”

“With any luck, the right wing might shoot itself in both feet,” Peterson said. “That’s the only way he’ll win here.”

A SurveyUSA poll shows Hurt ahead by double digits. It also estimated the likely electorate at 3-to-2 Republican, compared with roughly even in 2008; indicated African-American turnout would drop from 22 percent to 13 percent; and showed Hurt leading among young voters.

Perriello and Nye, of Norfolk, have little margin for error. Although Perriello outpolled Obama, he only won with 50.09 percent, or 727 votes. Nye took 52.4 percent in a district Obama narrowly carried but has only backed him 71 percent of the time and voted against health care and energy.

Divided opposition

But both have the divided opposition Peterson hoped for. Besides Republican Scott Rigell, the 2nd District field includes another Republican, Kenny Golden, who complains the GOP has moved too far right.

In Perriello’s 5th, Hurt’s support for a 2004 state tax increase, which he now says he regrets, has stirred independent opposition from one tea party activist, Jeff Clark, although Hurt won the support of another who ran second in the GOP primary.

Connolly, the third freshman Democrat, appears in better shape in the northern Virginia district he won by 15 points.

Voter skepticism was evident in pointed questioning Perriello faced, though the tone was far more restrained than the often raucous sessions he faced a year ago.

He didn’t back off. Asked about a Republican ad alleging Democrats had raised taxes and planned more increases, he replied, “We cut taxes for 89 percent of families, and they’re just saying the opposite, which is not true.”

“Do I think that’s a particularly honorable kind of politics?” he asked rhetorically. “No. But I didn’t get into this thinking it would be patty-cakes.”

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune.