Will Kyrgyzstan make it?

Opinion: April 17, 2010 at 12:00a.m.

By Pavel Dyatlenko

Institute for War & Peace Reporting

BISHEK, Kyrgyzstan — For the third time in less than 20 years, this country is getting a chance to transform itself from a clan-based autocracy into a democracy. But many observers are skeptical that the latest coup will lead to meaningful political reform.

The country’s first president, Askar Akaev, who emerged after the country gained its independence with the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991, was quick to concentrate power in the hands of his family, using his political influence to control the economy and accumulate vast personal wealth.

Akaev was ousted in March 2005 during the Tulip Revolution that brought opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev to power. Bakiyev was elected president in July 2005 after promising to implement democratic reforms and improve the economy.

But after nearly five years in office, critics accused Bakiyev of failing to improve the economy and becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Now, the interim government that ousted him earlier this month has a chance to avoid the mistakes of its predecessors and fulfill the promise of the 2005 revolution.

Its success, however, depends on its ability to overcome what many see as the overarching obstacle to establishing democracy in Kyrgyzstan: the country’s clan-based political system.

In Kyrgyz politics, kinship and regional allegiances remain an important factor. As a result, access to power and, in particular, allocation of top government posts is determined by one’s association with the ruling clan.

The best way to overcome this obstacle is by strengthening the role of the legislature to reduce the president’s authority.

Right direction

Two efforts already announced by the interim government — a referendum on a new constitution and a general election within six months — are steps in the right direction.

As for economic policy, the new leaders need to create incentives for businesses to grow. The measures could include reducing taxes, offering affordable loans to businesses and combating government corruption.

Kyrgyzstan’s new rulers will rely on backing and financial help from the international community to successfully accomplish their tasks. The people of Kyrgyzstan deserve another chance at achieving democracy.

Pavel Dyatlenko is a political analyst in Bishek who writes for The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organization in London that trains journalists in areas of conflict. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services