Is GOP poised to make inroads in the Valley in 2010?

By David Skolnick

John Kasich, the leading Repub-lican candidate for governor in 2010, is campaigning in the Mahoning Valley.

Kasich spoke to the Mahoning County Teenage Republicans on Thursday and was to discuss his campaign platform and why he’s running for office at a Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber breakfast event today.

Among the Republican statewide candidates running next year, Kasich is likely to be the one making the most campaign stops in this area.

The 2006 statewide election results showed that Republicans wasted their time campaigning in this heavily Democratic area.

No Republican statewide candidate won in Mahoning or Trumbull counties three years ago, and most weren’t even competitive here.

For example, Ted Strickland, a Democrat, crushed Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Strickland received 60.5 percent of the vote statewide.

An impressive victory for sure.

But compare his statewide percentage to Mahoning County, where he received 76 percent of the vote, and Trumbull County, where he captured 74.2 percent.

So is Kasich wasting his time campaigning here?

With the sharp downturn in the economy the past few years, people point fingers at those currently in elected office. Most statewide officeholders are Democrats. Ohio Republicans are framing their campaign next year around the failures of the state under a Democratic administration.

Strickland admits he’s going to have a tougher time in the 2010 election, and he’ll be depending on a strong Valley turnout.

“Next year is going to be a more competitive election than I had” in 2006, he told me last month. “It will be important next year to both parties. If I’m going to win next year, I’m going to have to do well here.”

There is no doubt Kasich will do better than Blackwell did in 2006.

In order for him to have a shot at winning, he’s got to keep Strickland’s Valley voting percentage to no more than 60. Yes, only 40 percent of the Mahoning and Trumbull vote for Kasich would be huge for his campaign.

But it’s a tall order because despite the state’s problems, Strickland remains a popular politician in the area.

Keeping Strickland to no more than 60 percent of the vote is challenging.

But it’s at least a possibility.

What Mahoning County Democratic Party Chairman David Betras wants is next to impossible.

Betras has vowed to get at least 80 percent of the county’s vote for every statewide Democrat running in next year’s general election.

You can’t say Betras isn’t giving it his all.

In response to Kasich’s visit to the county, Betras said, “He has a lot of nerve coming here after he decimated our economy. Free traders like him should just stay away. He’s to the right of Rush Limbaugh.”

Betras attacked Kasich for his support of free trade agreements and other economic policies that “killed our economy.”

He added: “Mr. Kasich has always placed the interests of Wall Street ahead of the interests of Main Street and I, quite frankly, have no idea how he can even show his face in an area that has been so devastated by the legislation and policies he has supported over the years.”

Mark Munroe, Mahoning County Republican vice chairman, sees it quite differently.

“John Kasich is a guy who can bring real positive change and finally make Ohio and the Mahoning Valley a strong place to do business,” Munroe said. “He cares about developing a climate for economic development. He’s going to do well in the Valley because he has a plan to create jobs.”

We’re getting close to full campaign mode well over a year before the 2010 election.