Panel finds NASA needs a new plan and more money

Orlando Sentinel

WASHINGTON — A presidential panel told the White House on Tuesday that NASA’s manned-spaceflight program is on an “unsustainable trajectory,” can’t afford its current goal of going to the moon and must work more closely with other countries and private companies to preserve a “viable” human-exploration program.

In a 12-page executive summary, the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee offered a bleak assessment of NASA’s situation.

“The U.S. human spaceflight program appears to be on an unsustainable trajectory. It is perpetuating the perilous practice of pursuing goals that do not match allocated resources,” said the summary, which will be followed by a full report later this month.

“Whatever space program is ultimately selected,” the report continued, “it must be matched with the resources needed for its execution.”

Indeed, the report said NASA’s four-year-old plan to return to the moon by 2020 is unaffordable due to budget cuts and recommended a “flexible path” that would explore the inner solar system — and ultimately go to Mars — over several decades. This could include a trip to the moon.

But to do that, the panel found, NASA needs $3 billion a year above its current $18 billion annual budget. The panel said “no plan compatible with [NASA’s current budget projections] permits human exploration to continue in any meaningful way.”

While the findings largely conform to the conclusions the committee voiced in public hearings last month, several recommendations stood out strongly.

NASA should abandon its plan to develop an Ares I rocket for crew and a larger Ares V rocket for cargo, and develop a “lite” version of the Ares V capable of carrying both. NASA has spent more than $3 billion on Ares I and is budgeted to spend another $1.4 billion next year.

NASA needs to enlist other countries in human space exploration. The report mentions international partners and partnerships in space exploration 15 times. “Actively engaging international partners in a manner adapted to today’s multipolar world could strengthen geopolitical relationships, leverage global resources and enhance the exploration enterprise,” it says.

The life of the international space station should be extended five years, to 2020. “Not to extend its operation would significantly impair U.S. ability to develop and lead future international spaceflight partnerships,” it said.

The recommendations are in sharp contrast to NASA’s current approach, which aims to put American astronauts back on the moon by 2020 with little help from anyone else. One of the few NASA strategies the panel endorsed is retiring the space shuttle by sometime in 2011 — though the panel said it might be possible to keep it flying until 2015.

The panel depicts NASA as a cash-starved agency trying to realize a 2005 “vision” to return to the moon without the resources to do so.

“Destinations should derive from goals,” the 10-member panel, headed by former Lockheed Martin CEO Norm Augustine, wrote, urging a revised goal of broadly exploring the inner solar system, including fly-bys of the moon, asteroids and Mars.

The report presents five exploration options, from continuation of NASA’s Constellation moon program to a “flexible path” of exploratory missions. Possible hardware ranges from the Ares I and heavy-lift Ares V rockets, to shuttle-derived lifters.

But the panel said any viable option requires $3 billion more a year through 2014 and inflation-adjusted increases after that to fund a “reasonable, though hardly aggressive, timetable. The committee believes an exploration program that will be a source of pride for the nation requires resources at such a level.”

A final decision on which of the panel’s recommendations to adopt belongs to President Obama. For now, the White House isn’t publicly picking favorites.

“Until the options are thoroughly considered, it would be premature for anyone to draw conclusions from the committee’s work. The president will consult with senior advisers, including the NASA Administrator, before making his final decisions,” White House spokeswoman Gannet Tseggai said.