Casino issue is a toss up in November

COLUMBUS — In less than two months, all of you voters are going to have to decide on three statewide ballot issues related to veterans, livestock and gambling.

The first two seem like pretty sure bets at this point, but I’m not so sure on Issue 3. Here’s the early rundown on each:

Issue 1, Veterans Bonuses: The amendment would allow the state to borrow up to $200 million to provide bonuses to veterans of the Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts.

Payments of up to $1,000 would be given to Ohioans who served in recent years or during Desert Storm in the early 1990s. Families of veterans killed in action would receive $5,000.

Ohioans have supported comparable bonuses for veterans of past military conflicts. They’re going to do the same this November.

Prediction: Issue 1 passes, with more than 75 percent of voters supporting it.

Issue 2, Livestock Board: The amendment would create a statewide board to develop standards for livestock care and well being.

The move is a preemptive strike against outside efforts to regulate the livestock industry. In California voters last year OK’d a proposition supported by the Humane Society of the United States allowing criminal charges against farmers for confining certain animals in a way that prevents them from turning around, standing up or lying down.

Standards board

With voter approval in November, the resolution would create a standards board including farmers, veterinarians, consumer and humane society groups and scientists. Members would work to create standards for biosecurity on farms, animal disease prevention and food safety and affordability.

The amendment is backed by Republican and Democratic leaders of the Ohio House and Senate, plus Gov. Ted Strickland. The Ohio Farm Bureau and the state’s other major agricultural groups are actively campaigning for its passage.

Prediction: Issue 2 passes, with more than 60 percent of voters supporting it.

Issue 3, Casinos: The amendment would allow casinos at specific sites in Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Columbus.

Backers say the locations would create about 20,000 jobs and result in $1 billion in new private investment. Additionally, they say the projects would provide $200 million in licensing fees and $650 million in tax revenues for the state, counties, cities and school districts.

But the issue has ample (and deep-pocketed) opposition, who say the amendment language is tipped in favor of the casino operators and against taxpayers. That’s not to mention the standard arguments about the social ills associated with gambling.

Four previous casino issues have been rejected by voters, including one last November that would have established a location in southwestern Ohio.

The closest casino-backers came to passing an issue was in 2006, when the final vote was 57 percent opposed, 43 percent in favor. In the other three, the “No” votes totaled 62 percent or more.

Off the cuff, it would seem that any casino issue is doomed to failure. But 2009 is a new year — and one in which a lot of Ohioans are struggling to make ends meet.

They’re already facing cuts in state-provided services. And many don’t support a tax hike to prevent further cuts.

Will voters back a casino plan this year, with its promises of stuffing the state’s coffers with much needed revenue?

Prediction: The amendment fails, but by a much narrower margin — 53 percent-47 percent.

X Marc Kovac is The Vindicator’s Statehouse correspondent. E-mail him at mkovac@dixcom.com or on Twitter at Ohio Capital Blog.