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Casino support softens, poll finds
The statewide poll also shows a dead heat in the 2010 governor’s race.
YOUNGSTOWN — Support in Northeast Ohio for a constitutional amendment to build four gambling casinos is lessening, according to an Ohio Newspaper Poll.
But the poll results show the proposal would pass in the region as well as the state.
The poll also has Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, and John Kasich, his Republican challenger in the November 2010 election, in a statistical dead heat. Strickland has a lead of 11 percentage points in Northeast Ohio, the region giving him the strongest support in the state.
Fifty-seven percent of registered voters statewide in the poll favor the casino issue with 39 percent opposed. The rest are undecided.
The results in an Ohio Newspaper Poll last month were 59 percent to 38 percent in favor of the issue.
The poll shows declining support for the initiative among registered voters in Northeast Ohio.
Today’s poll has 56 percent of those in Northeast Ohio supporting the issue with 41 percent in opposition.
That’s still good enough for second among geographic regions in the state supporting the gambling proposal.
But the percentages in last month’s poll for Northeast Ohio were 63 in favor and 33 in opposition.
The Ohio News Organization — a cooperative of the state’s eight largest daily newspapers, including The Vindicator — commissioned the poll.
The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which also runs the Ohio Poll, surveyed 687 registered voters Oct. 14 to Tuesday by telephone for the poll. The margin of error is 3.7 percent.
State Rep. Robert F. Hagan of Youngstown, D-60th, who opposes the issue, said he’s not surprised that poll results show it passing.
Supporters of the gambling issue are saying the casinos — to be built in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo — would provide about $650 million annually in gross revenue taxes for the state. Opponents dispute those numbers.
“When we get desperate in a sinking economy you look for any revenue,” he said. “I’m not a fan of a casino economy. It’s not a sure thing or something we can count on.”
Casino supporters also say the projects would create 34,000 new jobs, including 19,000 construction jobs.
Of those in Northeast Ohio who support the issue, 60 percent said the reason they’re voting for the proposal is, “Ohio needs the jobs.” That percentage statewide in the poll is 53.
“Those are good-paying, skilled jobs that we can fill,” said state Rep. Tom Letson of Warren, D-64th. “That’s a legitimate reason to support the casino issue.”
Letson said he’s neither for nor against the issue, but says it has a “real good chance” of passing in the Nov. 3 election. The “tough economic times” have people supporting the gambling proposal, he said.
The poll shows 40 percent of those from Northeast Ohio who oppose the gambling initiative are doing so because “casinos will increase problems like crime and gambling addiction.”
The poll also has the November 2010 gubernatorial race between Strickland and Kasich as a statistical dead-heat with the incumbent having a 1 percent lead, 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided or supporting another candidate.
Northeast Ohio is among only two of the five regions in the state supporting Strickland.
Strickland’s lead in the poll over Kasich is 54 percent to 43 percent. Strickland leads Kasich 47 percent to 44 percent in Southwest Ohio. Strickland trails the Republican by double-digits in Northwest, Central and Southeast Ohio.
“For the incumbent governor to be in a tie with a challenger who recently announced is remarkable,” said Mark Munroe, Mahoning County Republican Party vice chairman. “It bodes well for Republicans [in 2010]. The mood of the state has shifted dramatically and it’s trending towards Republicans.”
Strickland shouldn’t panic, but he needs to be concerned about the poll numbers, Hagan and Letson said.
skolnick@vindy.com