Killing with a firearm becoming more precise

Nonfatal shootings appear to be declining at a quicker pace than homicide. In 2008, there were 16,272 murders in the United States. That represents a slight decrease from 2007, but nearly a five-percent increase over the last decade. During the same period, aggravated assaults, some of which include nonfatal shootings, have decreased by nearly 17-percent.

In Baltimore, between 1996 and 2008, nonfatal shootings decreased by 60-percent. According to the Baltimore Sun, homicide decreased at a much slower rate of 34-percent. Looking at it from a different perspective, University of Missouri-St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld told the Associated Press that, “St. Louis, Kansas City and New York each had spikes in homicides in 2008 but no corresponding increase in the related crimes of armed robbery and gun assaults.”

There is ample evidence of this phenomenon in cities across the country. In Milwaukee, for the first six months of 2009 homicide was up 18-percent while nonfatal shootings remained the same. In Camden, New Jersey, homicide was down by 10-percent while nonfatal shootings decreased by 13-percent.

Police have long accepted that a shooting which does not result in death is merely a failed homicide. A closer look at the research would suggest that killing with a firearm is becoming more precise and that nonlethal shootings are not merely the result of poor aim.

Firearm homicides typically occur between people who know each other. Random murder of strangers occurs in fewer than three out of ten cases. A significant number of those killings are in the commission of some other felony like armed robbery. According to the FBI, approximately 70-percent of murder victims were acquainted with their killer. Offenders know who they want to kill and are doing a better job of it.

Killers are using more fire power. More powerful firearms with more lethal ammunition are showing up with increased frequency. In 2004, the University of Connecticut Health Care System studied the measurements of bullets removed from trauma patients over a period of more than 20 years. The study found, “ an ominous trend toward the use of larger caliber firearms in ... homicides.”

The increased lethality of the mechanism of death is not the only concern. Johns Hopkins University released a study in 2006 that found “a true change in violence intensity.” Despite improvements in emergency trauma care, mortality has risen as a result of the severity of gunshot wounds inflicted upon victims. In a span of 15 months, Johns Hopkins documented a sharp increase in the number of “severe, devastating, and likely nonsurvivable” gunshot wounds. A similar study at Memphis State University indicated that these trends were not specific to a single urban institution, but reflected a general trend in urban trauma patterns.

Some observers suggest that there may be other reasons for the seemingly inconsistent pattern between shootings and homicide. Rosenfeld suggested, “It may be that the other crimes are not reported as reliably as homicide, or that hospital trauma units are failing to stop a serious assault from becoming a murder.”

Crime reporting

There is no question that crime reporting may have some impact. This spring, Detroit had to adjust its homicide totals after the Detroit News reported that the police inappropriately omitted certain killings. Baltimore has had a history of misreporting non fatal shootings and at times Atlanta, Dallas, New York and Philadelphia have failed to accurately report violent crime.

Rosenfeld’s suggestion that hospitals are failing is not supported by the research. In fact, a 2002 study by the University of Massachusetts found that the national murder rate would be three times higher, were it not for improvements in emergency medical care over the last quarter century.

If improved trauma care is responsible for keeping an increasing number of shootings from becoming murders, why are non lethal shootings decreasing at a greater rate than homicides? The answer is clear and alarming. Killers know their targets, are better armed and more lethal in their methods.

X Matthew T. Mangino is the former district attorney of Lawrence County and a featured columnist for the Pennsylvania Law Weekly. He can be reached at matthewmangino@aol.com