Warning to Democrats: You’re losing your base

By STEVEN THOMMA

FAIRFAX STATION, Va. — President Barack Obama and the Democrats have a problem heading into next year’s elections for control of Congress — they’re losing independents to the Republicans and parts of their own Democratic base to apathy.

Strong majorities of independents turned away from Democrats and voted Republican in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday, a key defection signaling they could be up for grabs heading into the 2010 elections. They went for the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Virginia by a margin of 66 percent to 33 percent, and in New Jersey by 60 percent to 40 percent, according to exit polls.

Magnifying the challenge, the swing isn’t limited to those two states. A new McClatchy-Ipsos poll found independents have pulled away from Obama steadily for months and have turned sharply against his highest domestic priority, the plan to overhaul the nation’s health care system.

Democrats also face challenges energizing their base in the 2010 elections when 36 senators and the entire House of Representatives will be up for election. In Virginia on Tuesday, for example, voters under age 30 made up just 10 percent of the vote, less than half the 22 percent they comprised last year when Obama won the Old Dominion, the first time it voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.

The new poll this week found independents nationally turning ever more skeptical toward Obama, helping drive his job approval rating to 53 percent, the lowest of his presidency.

Only 45 percent of independents now approve of how Obama’s doing his job, down 12 points from August and 25 points from the start of his term. Disapproval among independents has more than doubled in his first 10 months, to 41 percent from 19 percent.

Independents also have turned sharply against the health care plans being pushed by Obama and Democrats in Congress, the McClatchy-Ipsos poll found. After narrowly supporting the proposals by a margin of 39 percent to 37 percent in late August, independents now oppose it by 53 percent to 29 percent. Democrats and Republicans were virtually unchanged over the same period.

“A big chunk of the decline comes from independents,” said Clifford Young, a pollster at Ipsos Public Affairs.