Federer’s win in Madrid spices French Open hype

McClatchy Newspapers

The most intriguing French Open plot thickened last week when Roger Federer defeated top-ranked Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the final at Madrid.

It ended Nadal’s 33-match clay winning streak, and for just the second time in 11 tries, the Swiss conquered the Spaniard on dirt.

Federer called it “the win I so badly needed.”

But does it tilt the scales heading into the most anticipated French Open in recent history?

Does Federer’s victory mean he has a better chance of beating his nemesis on Nadal’s favorite surface — the slower courts of Paris?

Does it mean Federer, who had struggled this year, will win the one Grand Slam event that has eluded him?

Does it mean Nadal is any less likely to become the first player, male or female, to win five consecutive French Open titles?

Probably not.

“Rafa is still the best clay player in the world,” Andy Roddick said. “I guarantee you, Roger would tell you the same thing. Rafa is the favorite for the French.”

Federer conceded that Nadal’s loss in Madrid likely would not carry over to Roland Garros.

“I don’t think he’s going to take any damage away from this,” Federer said. “I’m sure he’s going to be rock-solid in Paris again.”

Consider the numbers:

Nadal has never lost a match at the French Open, which begins today. He is 28-0 there, didn’t drop a set last year and has won 42 of his last 43 sets there over the past two years.

He is 150-5 on clay since 2005. He is 45-0 in best-of-5 matches on clay, including a stunning 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 victory over then-No.1 Federer in last year’s final.

Federer later said that crushing defeat was the first major sign of his struggles. He lost his No. 1 ranking to Nadal a few months later.

“The Madrid result helps Roger more than it hurts Nadal,” ESPN2 commentator Patrick McEnroe said. “It will give him more confidence, and certainly gives us more to talk about.

“It bodes well for him that he was able to play riskier tennis and beat Nadal in a big match, but Nadal is still the heavy, heavy favorite going into the French Open because it’s at sea level, it’s best-of-5 and it’s seven rounds. I just don’t see anyone beating him there. It would take a Herculean effort.”

It also must be noted that Nadal’s loss to Federer at Madrid came less than 24 hours after he endured a four-hour, emotionally draining semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Nadal saved three match points to win, and he looked flat, tired and uncomfortable against Federer.

“Nadal seemed a shell of himself in that final,” ESPN2 commentator Mary Carillo said. “You could tell he was crabby and angry.

“I don’t think it was a big loss for Rafa, but it was an important win for Roger. He recalibrated parts of his game, got his forehand back, served well. He took it to Rafa, and that was good for him. But in a best 3-of-5 format over seven rounds at Roland Garros, it’s going to be much tougher for Roger to keep playing a high-risk game. I still see Rafa as the clear favorite, but it does add nice intrigue to the French.”