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Mahoning financial forecast: gloom, gloom and more gloom
Every major revenue stream is down this year, the county administrator says.
YOUNGSTOWN — The financial outlook for Mahoning County continues to be gloomy, according to Administrator George J. Tablack.
“There really isn’t any good news as far as revenues,” Tablack told the county commissioners Thursday.
Sales-tax receipts so far this year are running 4.44 percent below the $28.1 million estimated from that revenue source for the entire year, he said. If that trend continues all year, the county will suffer a $1.25 million shortfall in sales-tax income this year, he added.
Together, the county’s two half-percent sales taxes constitute 47 percent of general-fund revenue. The sales tax is, by far, the largest revenue source for the general fund, which is the county’s main operating fund.
Sales-tax receipts were down 1.9 percent in April and 7.27 percent in May, compared with the same months last year, Tablack said.
He noted, however, that the sales tax revenue the county received in May reflects sales that occurred in February, which was a snowy month this year. There’s a few months’ delay in the sales tax reimbursement to the county by the state.
Given the revenue shortfall, more expenditure cuts are needed in county operations, Tablack said.
The administrator noted the tentative agreement reached between the county and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union Local 3956, which represents Clerk of Courts employees. That agreement, which includes unpaid days off, still awaits approval by the county commissioners.
Scott Grossen, office administrator for the clerk’s office, declined to reveal specifics of that agreement before the commissioners approve it.
Tablack said he has instructed Pete Triveri, facilities director, to prepare a layoff list for his department if adequate concessions can’t be negotiated there.
Negotiations with the Fraternal Order of Police on concessions to be taken by 911 dispatchers are still needed, Tablack said.
“We all predicted this was going to be a tough year, and that next year would be a tough year as well,” recalled John A. McNally IV, county commissioner.
“I don’t think anything has really changed ... Some departments are going to have to make some changes. Some departments and unions are going to have to make some concessions,” McNally added.
“Interest income is down. Sales tax (revenue) is down. Every major stream of revenue is in a negative trend in relationship to last year,” Tablack said.
The county can also expect to lose state revenue in the general fund, he added. “If the state revenues are down, we can reasonably expect that it’s going to have an adverse effect on the revenues that get distributed back to us,” he added.
“We continue to cut costs and continue to monitor revenues and hope that some of the trends reverse themselves, but we are far from out of the woods as a county government,” Tablack said.
“This problem is expected to continue well into next year,” Tablack said of the revenue shortfall.
Anthony T. Traficanti, chairman of the county commissioners, said he hopes the county’s sales tax income will increase if a second shift consisting of 1,400 workers is added for Cruze production at the General Motors Lordstown Complex beginning next year.
On the other hand, Traficanti said he is concerned about the uncertain status of pensions for GM retirees. “That doesn’t give people any more empowerment to want to go out and spend any money if they’re sitting there wondering: ‘Is my pension going to be cut?,’’’ he observed.
“We need the cooperation of every department (in county government) to work with us to keep the services being delivered and the county functioning,” Tablack concluded.
milliken@vindy.com