As Mexico seeks ‘normalcy,’ fears of swine flu rebounding

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico announced a return to “normalcy” Monday, preparing to reopen businesses and schools even as the swine-flu virus sickened more than 1,200 people in 20 countries.

World health officials said the global epidemic is still in its early stages and that a pandemic could be declared in the days to come. But Mexico’s president said it was waning at its epicenter, justifying Wednesday’s end to a five-day nationwide shutdown he credits for reducing the spread of the new virus.

Already, streets in the capital seemed more lively, with more vehicles and fewer people wearing face masks. Some cafes even reopened ahead of time. President Felipe Calderon said universities and high schools will reopen Thursday, and younger schoolchildren should report back to school May 11.

“The school schedule will resume with the guarantee that our educational institutions are in adequate hygienic condition,” promised Calderon. “This is about going back to normalcy but with everyone taking better care,” Calderon said.

Parents and teachers will turn away children who appear sick. The government is spending $15 million for detergent, bleach and soap to clean buildings, in a country where 12 percent of the nearly 250,000 schools — about 30,000 — lack running water or bathrooms.

Mexico canceled its biggest celebration of the Cinco de Mayo holiday today, a re-enactment of the May 5, 1862, victory over French forces in the central state of Puebla.

And experts inside Mexico’s swine-flu crisis center warned that the virus remains active throughout Mexico and could bounce back once millions return to work and school. It also may get worse north of the border.

“The bottom line is that there hasn’t been time for the severe illnesses to perhaps show up in the U.S. yet,” Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Associated Press.

Experts in the U.S. also urged caution, even as a New York City school reopened Monday after a spring break trip to Mexico led to as many as 1,000 people being sickened.

“We are by no means out of the woods,” said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC.

Health Secretary Jose Cordova insisted that swine-flu infections are trending downward after 27 deaths at the center of the epidemic. He said those infected appear to pass it on to an average 1.4 other people, near the normal flu rate of around 1.3.

Cordova said soccer stadiums and concert halls could reopen — if fans are kept 2 meters apart.

But other experts said the known cases are almost certainly only a fraction of what’s out there, meaning more illnesses could surface once crowds gather again in Mexico.

“It’s clear that it’s just about everywhere in Mexico. I think now there is considerable person-to-person transmission,” Widdowson said. And now that the virus is taking off in the U.S., chances of severe cases could rise as well.

“We’ve seen in many of the cases in Mexico, there’s been sometimes five to seven days of being mildly ill with increasing respiratory distress and then being hospitalized, and then spending five days or a week in hospital, so that’s a timeline of two weeks,” he said.

As of Monday, Mexico had 802 confirmed cases, and U.S. case grew to at least 300 in 36 states. Globally, the virus has reached more than 1,276 people in 20 countries — still in its early stages, to the World Health Organization.

The WHO was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak has begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer to geographic spread rather than severity. Pandemics aren’t necessarily deadly. The past two pandemics — in 1957 and 1968 — were relatively mild.

The Southern Hemisphere is particularly at risk. Though Africa still hasn’t reported any swine flu infections and New Zealand is the only country south of the equator with confirmed cases, winter is only weeks away. Experts worry that typical winter flus could combine with swine flu, creating a new strain that is more contagious or dangerous.