Getting maximum value on the river

It’s important to avoid falling into predictable patterns based on bet sizes when playing small ball poker. For example, never make all your bluff bets 60 percent of the pot while setting your value bets at 80 percent of the pot.

That strategy might work if other players aren’t paying attention. In reality, though, perceptive opponents will pick up this betting pattern and will use that information to exploit you. How? By reraise-bluffing on your smaller bets and laying down strong hands against your bigger bets.

It’s far better to value bet the river with hands you want to get paid off on by betting the same amount that you’d bet as if you were on a bluff.

Here’s an example where a young player made it ridiculously obvious by the size of his bet that he had a strong hand and was trying to collect some extra value on the river.

Our hero raised from late position to 250 pre-flop. With the blinds at 50/100, the big blind called.

The flop came 10c-10s-8c. The big blind checked, the kid bet out 350, and the big blind called.

The turn was the 6d; again the big blind checked. This time, the youngster tossed in 900. The blind called again.

The river card was the 2c. With 3,050 now in the pot, the kid went a little crazy and made an unusually large 6,500 bet. Why so much?

Earlier in the game, the kid got caught bluffing twice. On each occasion, his bets were about fifty percent of the pot. I figured his big bet was a sure sign that he had a monster hand. Apparently, so did the player in the big blind; he showed pocket aces and mucked them face up!

Had the kid had made a more reasonable bet, say about 1,800, the big blind would have probably called instantly. Instead, the kid drastically overpriced the hand and cost himself an extra couple of thousand chips. Greed!

This situation is akin to card counting in blackjack. When a card counter knows the remaining cards in the deck are rich with high cards, the edge goes to the player. When only low cards remain, the edge shifts to the house.

Based on this knowledge, blackjack card counters will routinely vary their bet sizes. When the deck is pro-player, they’ll increase their bets; when the deck is pro-house, their bets are reduced.

The fact is that most blackjack card counters eventually get caught. Some, however, get caught more quickly than others. Their downfall is that they try to cash in on a big payday but fail when they alert the house to their game. It’s their uncharacteristic big bet that blows their cover.

Imagine you’re a pit boss working the blackjack tables. You see a player who bets $100 at the start of a shoe.

Then, after about six hands, the player suddenly increases his bet to $500. Just like in our poker example, his big bet sent out a clear message to his opponent, in this case, the house, that he thinks he’s got the advantage.

In blackjack, the key is to make subtle changes to your bet sizes so they’ll go unnoticed by the house. Rather than jumping from $10 to $500, try doubling your initial bet to $20 after a win and $40 after another.

The same rule applies to poker: Avoid varying your bet sizes so drastically that your cover will be blown. An overbet on the river can cost you chips when your opponent lays down his very playable hand.

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