What’s next for gas prices?

NEW YORK (AP) — Each year around this time, gas prices begin to rise and continue to do so well into summer, but this is not your typical year.

A severe economic downturn has spoiled our appetite for gasoline, with millions of Americans no longer commuting to work or planning summer trips.

Yet prices will rise in coming weeks nonetheless.

Here are some things you might expect to see this summer at the gas pump.

Q. When are gas prices going to go up again?

A. Prices should pop up by 10 to 15 cents per gallon by summertime. Prices rise almost every year before the summer driving season, as refineries slow production.

Q. Why are refineries slowing production?

A. State and federal regulators require refineries to make gasoline that limits pollution and smog over the summer, when ozone levels are highest. Refineries take plants off-line as they prepare for these summer grades, and the drop in production can lead to a temporary supply shortage. It is also more expensive to produce.

This year, many refiners are churning out even less gasoline to match falling consumer demand. Motorists are driving much less now as companies slash millions of jobs and laid-off workers stay home.

Bill Day, a spokesman for refiner Valero Energy Corp., said gasoline demand is down about 6 percent to 7 percent from last year. In response, Valero’s refineries are running at about 70 percent to 75 percent of capacity.

Q. Why are gas futures starting to rise even though summer isn’t here yet?

A. Investors watch gasoline prices like any other stock on Wall Street, and they’ll bid up gas futures when it seems the industry is headed for a supply shortage. That eventually leads to higher prices at the pump, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp.

Q. Can gasoline prices rise even if the price of oil falls?

A. Yes, they can. Refiners watch gasoline demand numbers carefully. If they make too much gasoline, they are not going to turn a profit. Not a good business model if you want to stay around long.

Q. So will gasoline rise to $4 a gallon again?

A. Probably not anytime soon. The market has a huge surplus of cheap oil, and that should continue to weigh down gas prices somewhat, compared with last year.

Even if demand jumps suddenly, gas prices could fall back below $2 a gallon later this summer, prices not seen in some time during the driving season, Flynn said.

“If we have hurricanes this summer, that could change things,” he said. “But I think we’re definitely going to see the lowest prices we’ve seen in five years.”

Q. Were prices at the pump last summer a fluke?

A. Actually, most experts say you’re in for a nasty surprise if you believe that. When oil prices fall to a certain level, it no longer makes sense to drill in some places, or to look for oil in others.

That’s already happening. Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported last week that the number of active oil and natural gas rigs dropped to 1,126. That is the lowest point since February 2004.

The economy will eventually recover, and experts say the same demand issues that helped drive prices sharply higher at the pump are not that far removed. And the ability to find new oil? That hasn’t changed either: It’s getting more difficult.