Industry analysts see Oscar move as prop to boost TV ratings

By CARRIE RICKEY

With last week’s news that in February, the Oscars will field 10 best-picture nominees, the horserace that is the Academy Awards promises to look a lot more like ... a horse race.

“This year (when “Slumdog Millionaire” emerged victorious), five formidable films were nominated, but ‘The Dark Knight,’ ‘Iron Man’ and ‘Wall-E’ were not,” Academy president Sid Ganis said Wednesday by phone. “We’ve felt for a while that we should widen the net of nominees.”

In truth, it’s a back-to-the-future move. During the 1930s and 1940s, the Oscars boasted 10 best-picture nominees. But it’s been 65 years — when “Casablanca” took the top prize — since 10 films were in contention.

While Ganis framed the change as one that would better represent the breadth of films out there, some industry analysts see it as a defensive move to prop up the sagging ratings of the Oscar telecast.

“This is less a boost to the film industry than it is a way to expand the audience of the Oscar telecast,” says Len Klady, columnist for moviecitynews.com and veteran Oscar handicapper.

In recent years, Oscar has embraced indie movies such as “Slumdog,” “No Country for Old Men” and “Crash.” Since fewer people see indie flicks, fewer people have a horse in the race and, correspondingly, fewer watch the telecast.

In 2004, when “Lord of the Rings: Return of The King” became the last pure popcorn picture to take the top prize, the telecast had an average of 43.5 million viewers. In 2008, when indie favorite “No Country for Old Men” won, the numbers dipped to 32 million. “Boosting the numbers of the TV audience wasn’t the primary reason for the move,” said Ganis. “But, sure, we’re hoping more people will tune in.”

There would still be a separate category for animated films, Ganis said Wednesday, but he expected that animated films and documentaries would be more likely to crack the final 10 than the final five.

Will 10 nominated films mean an even longer telecast? No, Ganis said. But the only way to achieve this would be to cut out Oscar tributes like the Jean Hersholt Award and Life Achievement Award. Asked to confirm the industry rumor that those tributes would be awarded at a dinner and not be part of Oscar night, he answered, “No comment. But stay tuned.”

It’s well-known that an Oscar nomination boosts box office and ancillary revenue for a movie. Was the decision to double the number of nominees conceived in the spirit of enriching producers at the expense of perhaps diluting the honor of the award? “We debated whether it might affect the honor of the award, but concluded it would not cheapen coin of the realm,” he said.

Asked which other titles would have made the cut if there had been 10 nominees in 2008, Ganis replied, “No comment.”

My own guess is that “Iron Man” and “The Dark Knight” would have been nominated, perhaps also “Doubt,” “Wall-E,” “The Visitor,” “Frozen River” and maybe the documentary “Man on Wire.” In that scenario, one of the multimillion-dollar behemoths would certainly have taken a big bite out of the tail — and box office — of “Slumdog Millionaire.”

On a more optimistic note, many filmmakers figure that doubling the number of nominations means doubling their chance of winning.

In that scenario, the movie-industry event will be like a kiddie soccer league banquet where every player takes home an acknowledgement.