Strasburg is likely to go No. 1 in MLB draft

By DENNIS MANOLOFF

The Washington Nationals will be hard-pressed to mess up this one.

With the first pick in the MLB draft that starts today, the Nationals are going to select Stephen Strasburg, a right-handed pitcher from San Diego State.

Strasburg, a junior, is far and away the best player available this year. (Las Vegas phenom Bryce Harper, labeled baseball’s LeBron by Sports Illustrated, still has high school eligibility.)

The 50-round draft runs through Thursday. Rounds 1-3 will be televised by the MLB Network today.

The Indians own the 15th pick in the first round. Their second selection is No. 63. Cleveland originally was slated for 14th overall, but the Nationals bumped it and others back one by getting the 10th pick as compensation for failing to sign pitcher Aaron Crow last year.

Who will be available at No. 15, let alone No. 63, is anybody’s guess. Mock drafts for baseball, even for those who study diligently, typically amount to fruitless exercises because of the giant, diversified pool from which teams choose. Nothing spells uncertainty like trying to project how high school seniors and collegians in a metal-bat game will fare as men in a wooden-bat game. The vast majority of those drafted will not be heard from for years as they work through the minors — and only a small percentage of each class reaches the majors.

This year is more of a crapshoot than usual, the consensus being there is no consensus after Strasburg.

Signing Strasburg will be an issue. Scott Boras awaits, a legendary agent famed for extracting every last million for his clients. Boras, Strasburg and $50 million have been mentioned in the same sentence in recent weeks, but even the great Boras cannot be expected to pull that off in a down economy.

For Boras to get anything close to $50 million, he will need to manufacture a hard-line stance. His star client, with nothing left to prove as an amateur, does not want to bide time for 12 months before re-entering the draft. Strasburg does not need to be told he could be in the majors by the end of the year if negotiations wrap relatively quickly. The Nationals know this, too.

Few, if any, baseball players have been hyped as much coming out of college as Strasburg. As a sophomore at SDSU, he went 8-3 with a 1.57 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 971‚Ñ3 innings. He allowed 61 hits and walked 16. He fanned 23 in a game against Utah.

This season, the 6-4, 230-pounder went 13-1 with a 1.32 ERA in 15 starts, striking out 195 in 109 innings. He gave up 65 hits and walked 19. He fanned 17 in a no-hitter against Air Force. His loss, at an NCAA regional against Virginia, featured 15 strikeouts in seven innings.

The dominance comes courtesy of a rocket arm that routinely hits triple digits with the heat. Late last month, Indians director of amateur scouting Brad Grant said: “He sits 99 to 103 mph.”

There is a depth of arms in high school and college this year. That constitutes good news for the Indians, who concentrated on position players the past two years.

Because it has 50 rounds, the MLB draft gives teams ample opportunity to find talent or make up for mistakes they do not know exist. But the volume of picks does nothing to diminish what happens in the first round.

“Every year going into the draft, the focus is on that first-round pick,” Grant said.

“You can add depth to your draft behind that, but the success rate is in the first round, so there’s always pressure.”

Last season, the Indians selected infielder Lonnie Chisenhall at No. 29. Chisenhall, 20, entered Sunday batting .301 with 10 homers and 43 RBIs for advanced-Class A Kinston.