Gates: Some U.S. troops might leave Iraq early

July 30, 2009 at 12:00a.m.

ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AP) — A combat brigade of 5,000 American troops may be brought home early from Iraq if an emerging trend of reduced violence holds, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday.

Gates’ acknowledgment that he is considering speeding the withdrawal of a full combat unit by the end of this year amounts to the first hint that the Obama administration might rethink its decision to keep a large residual force in Iraq and pull them out slowly.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said later that “conditions on the ground” will dictate any quickening of the withdrawal pace.

“We certainly agree that if conditions on the ground continue to improve, it’s possible that timetable could be accelerated,” Gibbs said Wednesday during a briefing aboard Air Force One en route to Bristol, Va., with the president. “But we’ve done nothing concrete except continue to watch the situation. Obviously there are a lot of — lots of political reconciliation that still has to be worked on and a security situation that we have to be mindful of even as many in the world focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

Earlier in the day, Gates told reporters aboard a Defense Department plane, “I think there’s at least some chance of a modest acceleration” in troop withdrawal this year.”

U.S. officials had worried that last month’s formal handover of control of Iraqi cities to Iraqi security forces might erode gains already made. But Gates said Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. general in Iraq, told him the security situation is better than expected.

Attacks directed at Iraqi civilian targets spiked in a rash of bombings for about 10 days leading up to the formal withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraqi cities June 30, but violence overall has hovered at far lower levels than previous years. Attacks on U.S. soldiers also have dropped off sharply.

An Associated Press tally shows seven U.S. troop deaths this month, the lowest monthly total so far for the Iraq war since it started in 2003.

The United States has about 130,000 forces in Iraq, with current plans calling for most combat forces — or more than 100,000 troops — to remain in the country until after Iraqi national elections in January.

It was largely because of Odierno’s concerns that the coming Iraqi election would trigger a rebound in violence that President Barack Obama decided on a slow withdrawal.

Though Obama announced in February that he would end the American combat role in Iraq, officials said at the time that the president had accepted a recommendation by U.S. officials and commanders in Baghdad to maintain substantial military forces there until after the January Iraqi election to help guarantee a safe ballot. The decision disappointed many anti-war Democrats.

Under the initial plan, the United States would draw down from 14 brigades to 12 this year. The withdrawal pace would have quickened after the January election, leaving about 50,000 forces in Iraq by September of 2010.

Gates stressed Wednesday that the idea of speeding up that pace and bringing a third brigade back by the end of this year is preliminary, tied to continued good news in Iraq.