Split vote bodes ill for future nominees

July 29, 2009 at 12:00a.m.

Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — The near- party line vote to approve Judge Sonia Sotomayor in the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday sent a message that Supreme Court nominees cannot be assured of winning support in the Senate even if they have solid legal credentials and a moderate record.

It also sent a warning that a future, more liberal nominee by President Barack Obama could provoke an all-out confirmation battle in the Senate.

By a 13-6 vote, the Democrats and a lone Republican sent her nomination to the full Senate, where she is expected to win confirmation next week.

Republicans claimed they had succeeded in setting a new, conservative standard for judging.

“This confirmation process has, in many ways, been a repudiation of activist legal thought,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., the ranking Republican. “It will now be harder to nominate activist judges.” To the surprise of some political analysts, six of the seven Republicans on the panel — all but South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham — voted against confirming the woman who will be the first Hispanic to sit on the court. They included Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Jon Kyl of Arizona, who represent states with large Hispanic populations.

The votes show that the Supreme Court carries a special importance for the base of both political parties, and senators are wary of voting to confirm a nominee of the president of the opposite party.

Three years ago, all the Democrats on the Judiciary Committee opposed President George W. Bush’s choice of Samuel A. Alito Jr. for the court, even though he, like Judge Sotomayor, had a long and solid record as a judge.

In recent weeks, advocates of gun rights and opponents of abortion have pressed senators to vote “no” on Sotomayor.

The Republicans have also stayed united in opposing Obama on many fronts.

“The Republicans were more nervous about giving Obama a big victory than in further eroding their diminished support among Hispanics,” said Donald F. Kettl, dean of the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. “The Sotomayor vote signals that [Obama] needs to very, very careful about going any further left with the next nominee.” Brian Darling, director of Senate Relations for the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the GOP vote “shows that Republicans are willing to put up a fight on the nominations ...

“The big question is what’s going to happen in the future. Are Republicans going to band together and fight harder if it’s perceived as a conservative seat being vacated” the next time. “I think this is going to force the president to be more cautious in his next nomination.”

From the liberal side, Nan Aron of Alliance for Justice said the Republican defections should free Obama to pick a more liberal nominee next time. “The Republicans will not support anyone he sends up. He has nothing to lose by choosing a progressive.”

Graham, the lone Republican to break ranks with his party, said Sotomayor deserved to be confirmed because she had been a good judge. He also praised Obama for choosing a Hispanic woman to serve on the court. ”America has changed for the better with her selection,“ he said.