In both parties, governor’s race in Pa. still taking shape

HARRISBURG (AP) — Early polling on Pennsylvania’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign makes one thing clear: It’s way too soon to be making predictions.

A statewide survey released by Quinnipiac University shows state Attorney General Tom Corbett leading the Republican field, but with only 38 percent support — about the same proportion as voters who are undecided. U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach attracted 15 percent and former U.S. attorney Pat Meehan had 9 percent.

The Democratic field appears even more volatile, with more than half of party members saying they did not know whom they would support. Those who had picked sides were closely divided among Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor General Jack Wagner and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox.

Only two candidates — Gerlach and Knox — have declared their candidacy, although the others have done whatever is necessary to keep alive the open secrets that they intend to run.

Both nomination contests remain “fluid and undefined” 10 months before the primaries, said Terry Madonna, a professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

“It’s damn early” in the election season, observed state Republican Chairman Rob Gleason.

Still, some aspects of the nascent campaigns are coming into focus.

For example, the poll confirmed that Corbett is the best-known of all the hopefuls. More than 40 percent of the poll respondents expressed opinions about Corbett — most of them favorable. Fewer than a quarter felt they knew enough to form opinions about any of the others.

From his office overlooking the Capitol, Corbett is directing the high-profile probe of alleged legislative corruption that began more than two years ago, and he continues to aggressively prosecute child sex predators on the Internet.

Meehan, as the federal prosecutor for Pennsylvania’s Eastern District, oversaw a four-year investigation that produced the March corruption conviction of former state Sen. Vincent Fumo of Philadelphia. But by the time Fumo was sentenced to 55 months in prison earlier this month, Meehan had been out of office for a year.

Among the Democrats, only Wagner has run statewide — both times for his present office. But he initially wavered between running for governor and running for U.S. Senate, and he has struggled to raise money. As of June 8, he had about $325,000 — most of it left over from his 2008 re-election campaign.

Fund-raising pressures are especially intense in gubernatorial campaigns, and Gov. Ed Rendell single-handedly raised the stakes in Pennsylvania. The onetime Philadelphia mayor raised more than $32 million in his 2006 re-election bid, and more than $42 million in his 2002 campaign.

Onorato, with the help of some of Rendell’s major backers, has accumulated a war chest of more than $4 million already.

A wild card for the Democrats is Knox, whose deep pockets could change the dynamics of the race. Knox spent $12 million of his own money on an unsuccessful 2007 bid for Democratic nomination for Philadelphia mayor, and he has signaled his intention to bankroll a large portion of this campaign as well.