Hutchison and her Sotomayor dilemma

The battle lines at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings on Sonia Sotomayor’s Supreme Court nomination make most senators’ choices seem predictable.

Virtually all Democrats will vote to make her the first Hispanic justice, hailing her as fair-minded and knowledgeable. Many or most Republicans will vote against her, calling her an activist whose personal views would influence her rulings.

In most cases, those votes will have little political impact for individual senators.

A possible exception is Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Running for governor means every Senate vote carries potential political impact, especially since she could face two very different groups of Texas voters.

If she supports Sotomayor, that would become an issue in the GOP primary against Gov. Rick Perry, with most of that electorate likely to be white conservatives.

If she votes against confirmation and wins the primary, it could become an issue for the far more diverse electorate in November 2010.

For her part, Hutchison disputes the notion that her Sotomayor vote will have much impact on the governor’s race. She says she has talked to Hispanics who both support and oppose Sotomayor, and “they know I will make this decision based on the merits.”

Hutchison says she won’t decide until she studies the full record, but past votes and statements suggest she’s more likely to vote no.

In 1998, she was one of 29 Senate Republicans who voted against confirming Sotomayor for the Court of Appeals. After meeting the judge, Hutchison expressed concern about her positions on gun control and affirmative action.

“I think her life story is very compelling, and her academic record is first-rate,” Hutchison said this week. “The questions I have are on her judicial philosophy and the judicial record, and I think that is essential because the Supreme Court has so much power.”

Such concerns provide legitimate ground to justify a no vote, especially when Hutchison is aggressively defending her conservative credentials.

Troublesome

Yet it also would come amid GOP troubles nationally — and in Texas — getting support from Hispanics, who make up one in five Texas voters.

Much of this stems from the immigration reform battle, in which most Republicans opposed a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

This could prove troublesome for Hutchison, though she never joined hard-core GOP opponents of illegal immigration and says she has “a strong record of supporting minorities on the Texas Supreme Court” and for federal judgeships.

Some Republicans on the Judiciary Committee tried to blunt Hispanic backlash by noting they would have supported Miguel Estrada, a conservative George W. Bush nominee to the Court of Appeals who was never confirmed.

On Monday, Sen. Lindsey Graham called this “the Hispanic element of this hearing” before adding, “this is mostly about liberal and conservative politics.”

Democratic chair Patrick Leahy countered Wednesday by choosing the end of Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s questioning to introduce letters backing Sotomayor from several Hispanic business groups in Texas.

Unless current patterns change, analysts believe the rising Hispanic tide ultimately will erode the largely white Texas Republican majority and make the state more competitive — or even Democratic.

That won’t happen immediately. Republicans might help themselves next year by electing a high-profile Hispanic like former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, who is running for attorney general. Still, some Democrats would use a Hutchison vote against Sotomayor to underscore their argument that Republicans don’t identify with Hispanics.

X Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.