Cap change could influence LeBron

By PATRICK MCMANAMON

Let’s try to quantify what an expected drop in the NBA salary cap next summer means to LeBron James.

The NBA this week sent a letter to teams saying the cap could be as low as $50 million in 2010-11.

For James, this means millions.

Literally.

No matter what happens, the Cavs can offer more money and another year.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume James does not pick up his player option for 2010-11 and becomes a free agent next summer.

If the cap were $62 million, as projected a couple of years ago, teams could have offered James a contract starting at $18.6 million. The Cavs could have offered him an extra year.

But the NBA projects things to be far different, with a cap somewhere between $50 and $54 million.

If the cap drops to $52 million and James is a free agent, teams could offer him a deal starting at “only” $15.6 million.

But because teams can pay more to keep their own players, the Cavs could offer him a deal starting at $16.6 million. With an extra year.

There’s a third scenario.

James’ player option for 2010-11 is worth $17.1 million.

If the cap drops, that option is higher than anything James could receive if he does not pick up the option.

If he takes the option and receives an extension from the Cavs, his salary for 2011-12 would be $17.95 million — to stay in Cleveland.

Nobody knows the exact figures.

But if James doesn’t pick up that player option, he’ll be leaving money on the table.

And if he goes to free agency and the cap drops, he’ll be leaving more money on the table.

Me, I’m going to go sort my change.

A free-agency review

When the playoffs ended, the Cavs identified two major needs:

UMore inside strength to deal with the stronger NBA centers. Well ... OK ... to deal with Dwight Howard.

UAnd a taller wing player who could shoot.

The Cavs took care of the inside need when they traded for Shaquille O’Neal, who at 37 still averaged 18 points and eight rebounds last season.

They turned to the outside in free agency.

Trevor Ariza was a target. Ariza initially hoped he’d get big money from the Los Angeles Lakers, then got his knickers in a bunch when the Lakers offered the midlevel exception — about $5.8 million a season.

When he expressed that hurt, the Lakers basically said OK. Because they had Ron Artest waiting.

Ariza was miffed, and told the Houston Rockets he’d sign with them for five years at $5.8 million a year.

The Cavs were confused.

They made the same offer to Ariza, and they did not have the uncertainty about the team’s future as in Houston, where Yao Ming might miss a season and Tracy McGrady’s status is questionable.

After a day or two, Ariza wondered whether he’d decided in haste.

He asked the Cavs to come out to visit with him, so he could hear everything and make sure he had made the right decision.

That’s when General Manager Danny Ferry and coach Mike Brown made their flight to LA.

They didn’t do it solely to pull a “Boozer” — to try to get Ariza to renege on a commitment. They did it because they were asked to come visit.

During the discussions, Ariza asked about the future of James, and he asked whether he’d start.

The Cavs could not give a certain answer to either. Nor should they. The Cavs have taken the approach that they will give James his space as he decides his future, but they will continue to try to build a good team around him.

Nor can they promise a starting job to a player who’s not O’Neal or another LeBron. Free agents not on the team can’t call the shots.

Too, the frontcourt starters seem set, with Anderson Varejao, O’Neal and James. Ariza would have competed with Delonte West to start at guard.

Ariza also wanted to know his role in the offense, and with the Cavs, it’s pretty obvious many of the shots will go to James, O’Neal and then Mo Williams.

So Ariza chose to keep his commitment with the Rockets.

The Cavs then turned to the Toronto Raptors’ Anthony Parker.

He’s 34, which means he brings a veteran presence, but he also would not have a long-term future in Cleveland.

The Cavs liked him a few years ago, when he returned to the NBA after playing in Israel and Italy, and they liked him as a free agent.

It’s probably not fair to call him solely a fallback option, but it’s also not true to say he was their first choice.

Parker, whose signing should take place in the next couple of days, is 6-foot-6, shoots well, can handle the ball and plays defense. He would be better able to match up with bigger guards than West or Williams.

Parker is a smart player, and he’ll understand his role. He can play both guard spots, and will accept coming off the bench to provide offense.

On paper, it appears that Parker and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will be the first subs for Brown, which should provide scoring.

The roles of J.J. Hickson and Darnell Jackson also could grow, depending on how they grow as players.

What could be interesting is the end of games. If Parker is as smart and good a defender as touted, he will be on the court because the Cavs are a defense-first team.

That means West or Williams will sit, which might not go over well.

The Cavs know that Parker is not a glamorous, big-name addition. They’re fine with that reality, because they think he fits.

He’s a better version — on paper — of Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic, and his contract is tolerable, in years and money.

There are more needs — especially at power forward.

The Cavs have about $3 million left in their midlevel exception, and a $2 million biannual exception.

Channing Frye’s name has been reported, but late in the week, the Boston Globe mentioned the Celtics’ Glen “Big Baby” Davis.

That possibility seems intriguing, because Davis is a big body who can move and whose play was more than impressive in the playoffs with Kevin Garnett hurt.

The Celtics, though, also have said they want to keep Davis.

It will be interesting to see how things work.

Sixty-six wins weren’t expected a year ago, and a lot of teams have gotten better.

The Cavs, though, are good enough to be in the mix.