Ryan ponders bid for U.S. Senate in 2010

By David Skolnick

Will U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan be a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated next year by Republican George V. Voinovich?

If he runs, can Ryan win?

The answer to the first question may not be revealed for a while.

Running for the Senate in 2010 is something Ryan of Niles, D-17th, has considered for quite a while.

But the dynamics changed considerably with Voinovich’s recent decision.

First for Ryan is learning what Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, also considered a top Democratic contender for the Senate, will do.

Elected statewide as attorney general and with more name recognition and political experience than Ryan, Fisher will decide sometime next week whether he’ll run for the Senate.

The most important person with whom Fisher will discuss the race is Gov. Ted Strickland.

Not only is Strickland Fisher’s boss, but he is the most powerful and influential Democrat in the state.

If Fisher announces he’s running and Strickland endorses him, it’s game over for any other credible Democrat.

It would be foolish for other Democrats, particularly those who must run next year for re-election to their current positions, to challenge Fisher in a Senate primary under those circumstances.

Democratic sources say Fisher is leaning against running for the seat. We won’t know until he announces his decision.

Strickland and probably many top Democrats in the state want to avoid a hotly contested primary for the Senate seat.

Republicans are hoping for a Democratic primary because the end result would probably fracture the Democratic Party and weaken the winner.

Obviously Strickland has a high opinion of Fisher — he wouldn’t have been the governor’s running mate in 2006 if he didn’t respect Fisher.

But Strickland also has a high opinion of Ryan.

During a presidential campaign event in the Mahoning Valley a few months ago, Strickland publicly touted Ryan as a future U.S. senator.

Strickland, who served in the U.S. House with Ryan, didn’t just toss out the comment. It was done with knowledge that the 2010 Senate race is coming up.

After Voinovich announced his plans for 2010, Ryan issued a statement indicating he’s looking at the seat.

“As a member of the House Appropriations Committee I am in a very good position to help create and expand important economic development in the state of Ohio,” Ryan said. “That said, if I can have a greater impact by being in the Senate, I will certainly consider it.”

Having to give up his seat on appropriations to be one of the least senior members of the Senate and possibly spending years serving on minor committees may keep Ryan in the House.

He’s undoubtedly receiving a lot of “encouragement” [better known as pressure] from top national Democrats to run for the Senate as he did in 2006. Can he turn them down twice?

Also, how many times in Ryan’s political career will he have the opportunity to run for an open Senate seat?

Republicans didn’t waste any time rallying around ex-U.S. Rep. Rob Portman, who declared his candidacy on Wednesday, two days after Voinovich publicly stated he wouldn’t seek re-election next year.

There is talk of ex-U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine; Jim Petro, the former state auditor and attorney general; and J. Kenneth Blackwell, the former secretary of state and treasurer, considering runs.

The biggest obstacle for Portman, as it is for Ryan, is limited name recognition.

Portman was President George W. Bush’s former budget director and trade representative. He was also mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for John McCain. But polls show the average voter doesn’t know him or Ryan.

So back to the two questions at the top of the column.

Will Ryan run? If Fisher declines, I think he will.

Can he win? If Ryan works hard enough and Strickland campaigns tirelessly for him, the answer is definitely yes.