After the Jan. deep freeze, now comes a big Feb. melt

A National Weather Service expert doesn’t expect major flooding.

STAFF REPORT

WARREN — Melting snow combined with rain has filled the Mahoning River, but the Mahoning Valley — thanks to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and its system of reservoirs and dams — has avoided any flood damage.

Charlie Kottler, hydraulics engineer with the Army Corps in Pittsburgh, said the measurement location in Leavittsburg on Tuesday was 2 feet below flood stage, and the measurement location in Youngstown, 4 feet below flood stage.

Brian Astifan, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Cleveland, said he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see the river get above its 10-foot flood stage in the next few days.

“There could be minor flooding,” he said. “It depends on the rainfall. I’m not expecting major flooding.”

In Lawrence County, Pa., a half-dozen families on the Neshannock Creek in Hickory Township were evacuated from their homes on Lakewood-Neshannock Falls Road. An ominous grinding, crunching sound alerted them around 4 p.m. Sunday to a 3‚Ñ4-mile-long ice jam forming up the creek from their homes.

Floodwaters caused by the jam were inching up higher Tuesday. Depending on temperature fluctuations, the ice could dislodge and slide easily by or break loose all at once, said Dave Porada, who watched water course past his house, figuring it might just overwhelm the pump in his basement.

Pat Adams, who showed up with her husband, Harry, to feed the couple’s two German shepherds and their cat, said she screamed when she saw the water come into her kitchen Sunday afternoon. But the damage to their home was minimal, Porada said. They swept the water out and he brought them in his canoe over to the other side of the floodwaters, where most of the families had already stashed their cars to protect them.

The creek neighbors are a close-knit group, Porada said. “You got to be a country person to put up with it.”

Lawrence County Commissioner Steve Craig said he had word of another jam on the Slippery Rock Creek in Scott Township, threatening homes there.

Commissioners had some concerns about the fate of communities downstream.

It is certainly possible those communities could be affected, said Brian Melcer, the county’s emergency management coordinator.

“We have to see where [the ice] settles out,” he said.

He said, however, it does not appear New Castle is threatened by the ice jam, but the county did notify the city the jam was starting to break up.

The Slippery Rock ice jam broke apart late this afternoon, and the Neshannock ice jam broke up Tuesday evening.

When the ice breaks on the Neshannock, it will head toward New Castle. And if the ice on the Slippery Rock were to block the Connoquennessing Creek, portions of the Ellwood City area in Beaver County could see flooding, Craig said.

Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected to fall between Tuesday and tonight, with the heaviest rain this morning, Astifan of the Weather Service said.

Between the rain and the high temperatures — expected to get into the low 60s today — melting the snow, parts of the area are soggy.

“We’ve definitely come out of the deep freeze in a hurry,” Astifan said. “Creeks and ditches will likely be high ... Anyone who’s been in their backyard knows they’re going squish.”

The Mahoning Valley was saved from serious flooding by having the melt-off occur at a gradual pace starting over the weekend, Kottler said.

Also, the Army Corps had the capacity to store much of the additional water in the three reservoirs that serve the Mahoning Valley: Kirwan Reservoir in Portage County; Berlin Lake in Mahoning, Portage and Stark counties; and Mosquito Lake in Trumbull County.

The outflow from the first two reservoirs affect Trumbull County, while the outflow from Mosquito Lake affects Mahoning County the most, Kottler noted.

Without the ability to store excess rainwater in the reservoirs, the Mahoning River would be about 2 feet above flood stage at Leavittsburg, Kottler said.

About 10 percent of the water in the Mahoning River right now is being intentionally released from the reservoirs, with the other 90 percent being retained, he said.

Linda Beil, director of Trumbull County’s Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, said no one has reported any flooding problems to her.

Warren Township Fire Chief Ken Schick, who monitors the river level at Leavittsburg, said the river level of 8 feet is 2 feet below flood stage, but he doesn’t become concerned until it reaches about 13 feet.

In 2003, the worst flooding he can recall in his 33 years in Leavittsburg, the river rose to 17 feet, Schick said.

“I don’t think we will have any problem unless we have a lot of rain,” Schick said. “It’s way, way down.”

In Columbiana County, law enforcement officials on Tuesday morning reported no flooding. Tim Long, the deputy director of the Columbiana County Emergency Management Agency, checked on possible flooding on Little Beaver Creek in the hilly southern portion of the county and said there was no problem. “Everything is looking pretty good,” Long said.