Syria emerges as Mideast contender

What’s the most important nation in the Middle East right now?

Is it Saudi Arabia, with the world’s largest oil reserves? Is it Israel, one of the region’s only democracies? Is it Egypt, long the political power broker?

No, the most important nation in the Middle East is Syria, a poor nation with few natural resources and a second-generation dictator who has the nation locked down so tight that Syrians are afraid even to talk.

For all of that, no other nation is so strategically located. No other state has the power to wreak so much havoc in the region — or, potentially to bring such positive change — which is certainly why the Obama administration is trying so hard to make friends.

Late last month, George Mitchell, the administration’s Middle East envoy, told Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that the United States would increase military ties and ease sanctions, in place since 2003. In the spring the State Department said it would return an ambassador to Damascus for the first time in four years.

Why Syria? Consider its neighbors: Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan. The Iranian border is just a short distance away. In that spot, oh what mischief Syria can (and does) make. Iran is Syria’s ally and patron, and Assad helps the mullahs in Tehran deliver arms and money to Islamic Jihad fighters in the West Bank and Hamas militants in Gaza. In fact, Hamas’ supreme leader, Khaled Meshal, lives in Damascus.

With Iranian help, Syria arms and equips Hezbollah, another militant group in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is an enemy of Israel — and the democratic government in Beirut. The American military complains that Syria offers safe haven to foreign militants who cause trouble in Iraq, even as U.S. troops begin to withdraw. Lebanon remains ever fearful that Syria will assassinate more of its leaders and take control of the state again, as it did for almost 15 years.

Syria may hold the key to Middle East. If Assad and the Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, could negotiate a return of the Golan Heights and a peace treaty between the two states, the other dilemmas facing Israel might more easily be resolved.

Nuclear ambitions

As if that were not enough, Syria is the only nation in the Middle East that worked with North Korea to create a nuclear reactor, apparently in search of a nuclear weapon to match Israel’s. Israel bombed the site in 2007.

So shouldn’t we wish Obama luck? Is there a better candidate for improved relations? No. Is there any realistic chance that the United States can peel Syria away from Iran and Arab extremists? Probably not.

First, consider what Assad would face if he abandoned Iran and the extremists — more or less as Moammar Gadhafi did in Libya four years ago. No more under-the-table foreign aid from Iran. Assad would have to rely on Washington. Every time the United States proposed aid for its new ally, the request would have to go before Congress, which would pick it to death .

To keep aid coming, Syria would have to respond to the three major reports that come out of the State Department each year and clean up its act. The most recent human rights report says: “In a climate of impunity, there were instances of arbitrary or unlawful deprivation of life. Members of the security forces tortured and physically abused prisoners and detainees.”

The department’s human trafficking report places Syria in Tier III, the worst classification, along with Burma, North Korea, Sudan and Cuba. And the 2009 drug trafficking report says: “Continuing political conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq, porous borders, and endemic police corruption make Syria an attractive overland smuggling route between Europe/Turkey and the Persian Gulf.”

But Assad has an even more important reason for treating Washington cautiously: his own political survival. His family and much of the ruling regime in Damascus is Allawite, a Shiite Muslim sect. The majority of Syria is Sunni. To survive Assad must maintain a strong strategic relationship with Iran, the capital of Shiite Islam.

President Obama, want to make friends with Syria, the region’s most important player? Best of luck.

X Joel Brinkley is a former Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent for The New York Times and now a professor of journalism at Stanford University. McClatchy-Tribune.