QB isn’t the safe choice, but likely one for Lions

By Dave Goldberg | April 21, 2009 at 12:00a.m.

The Detroit Lions didn’t get to 0-16 by drafting wisely — think Charles Rogers, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams and the like.

Now they face a dilemma. Even if they make what’s considered the “right” pick with the first selection in Saturday’s draft, they could prolong their decade-long agony.

That’s because having the No. 1 overall spot commits the Lions to guaranteeing more than $30 million to an unproven player. If it’s potential franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford of Georgia, it’s hardly a guarantee.

Stafford has all the tangibles: big, strong-armed, reasonably mobile. He worked out wonderfully at his pro day, the orchestrated party his university threw for scouts. Then he worked out wonderfully when the Lions had him in.

But his career at Georgia was a mild disappointment — he was so-so in some of his biggest games, making bad reads, throwing key interceptions and demonstrating that what you see in shorts isn’t necessarily what you get when the game is played for real.

The Lions could play it safe by taking Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith or Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, and use Daunte Culpepper at QB. Smith could be this year’s Jake Long, a solid left tackle with a dozen good years ahead of him. And Curry is likely to be a starting linebacker for 10-12 years even though he’s not spectacular; he’s never been used as a pass rusher, for example.

So Stafford is the likely choice: pass rushers, left tackles and, of course, QBs tend to be the most coveted players.

Yet the failure rate for first-round quarterbacks is still pretty high.

Basically, there are good years and bad years, 2004 being a good year with Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, 2006 being not so good with Vince Young and Matt Leinart sitting on benches in Tennessee and Arizona. Even Jay Cutler, the third QB taken that year and by far the most successful on the field, has issues. Cutler got himself traded to Chicago after owner Pat Bowlen got tired of his non-responsiveness to messages.

St. Louis, at No. 2, released Orlando Pace.Smith is an easy transition. Or so the Rams hope.

At No. 3 (Kansas City), this should be simple. Curry is the obvious choice. But he was an outside LB in college, so where does he fit in the 3-4 defense that Scott Pioli and Todd Haley, the new GM and coach, plan to install? Probably inside between newly obtained veterans Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas. He could drop if the Chiefs go for someone like offensive tackle Eugene Monroe.

Seattle, with the No. 4 pick, as a quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) with a bad back. Matt Sanchez of Southern Cal, might not be ready yet, but he fits Seattle’s West Coast offense and may have a higher upside than Stafford.